US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-19 House.
Health [...] “When you pay for a game, you should own it,” said Rep. Torres. “Consumers must have the right to own, the right to play, and the right to transfer the games they buy.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJosh Riley | 96.4% | 96.4% | 96.4% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RPeter Oberacker | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Josh Riley, a Democrat who has represented New York's 19th congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican state senator Peter Oberacker.
Peter Oberacker, a Republican member of the New York State Senate from the 51st district since 2021, challenges Democratic incumbent Josh Riley for New York's 19th congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 19th District margin of victory
| Riley, 3+ pts | 94.3% | |
| Riley, 6+ pts | 88.2% | |
| Riley, 9+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Riley, 12+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Riley, 15+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Riley, 18+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Riley, 21+ pts | 26.0% | |
| Riley, 24+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Riley, 27+ pts | 8.6% |
NY-19 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 3%+ | 0.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 3.4% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 1.4% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 4.2% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 15.5% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 19.1% | |
| Democrat 18-21% | 15.7% | |
| Democrat 21%+ | 21.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Josh Riley: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 96.5% · $740 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Josh Riley: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.2% · $1.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Josh Riley
If the House member sworn in for NY-19 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
