US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-26 House.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The article reports that Dennis Hastert, the longest-serving Republican Speaker of the U.S. House, has died at age 84.
Race: Florida’s 26th Congressional District (FL-26) general election on November 3.
The article reports that Aaron Gies, a Democratic political newcomer, will challenge Republican incumbent Nick Langworthy for New York's 23rd Congressional District seat in the upcoming general election.
The article profiles candidates for California’s 26th Congressional District ( Ventura County’s largest district), where Democrat Jacqui Irwin (state assembly veteran) and Republican Sam Gallucci (pastor and former tech…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTim Kennedy | 97.4% | 96.8% | 98.4% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| RDennis Hannon | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Dennis Hannon, a Republican and former construction worker, challenges Democratic incumbent Tim Kennedy for New York's 26th congressional district in 2026.
Tim Kennedy, a Democrat and former state senator who has represented New York's 26th congressional district since 2024, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Dennis Hannon, a former construction worker.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 26th District margin of victory
| Kennedy, 20+ pts | 95.2% | |
| Kennedy, 23+ pts | 91.1% | |
| Kennedy, 26+ pts | 82.0% | |
| Kennedy, 29+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Kennedy, 32+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Kennedy, 35+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Kennedy, 38+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Kennedy, 41+ pts | 11.8% | |
| Kennedy, 44+ pts | 5.1% |
NY-26 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.4% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 10-20% | 1.0% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | – | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 19.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 31.0% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 23.5% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 8.5% | |
| Democrat 50%+ | 0.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Tim Kennedy: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.5% · $927 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Tim Kennedy: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.7% · $558 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Tim Kennedy
If the House member sworn in for NY-26 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
