US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for OH-01 House.
Henry Cuellar’s TX-28 race is highlighted as a Republican-leaning district that has become less favorable for the GOP as money shifts away despite redistricting.
The article notes political activity around Ohio’s 1st Congressional District (OH-01) involving Rep. Greg Landsman (D) and Republican challenger Eric Conroy.
Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”
Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) is cited as opposing a forced censure vote against Rep. Randy Fine over controversial anti-Muslim remarks.
LandsmanThe article notes that the Congressional Leadership Fund halted campaign spending in two battleground districts, including Ohio’s 1st District where Republican Eric Conroy is challenging Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.
The article covers the race for Ohio’s redrawn 1st Congressional District (covers Warren County, Clinton County, and parts of Hamilton County) between incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman and Republican challenger Eric…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGreg Landsman | 92.5% | 92.8% | 92.1% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| REric Conroy | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Eric Conroy, a U.S. Air Force veteran and former CIA officer, is the Republican nominee for Ohio's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman in the November general election.
Greg Landsman, a Democrat who has represented Ohio's 1st congressional district since 2023 and previously served on the Cincinnati City Council, faces Republican Eric Conroy, an Air Force veteran and former CIA officer, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Ohio's 1st District margin of victory
| Conroy, 1+ pts | 8.5% | |
| Conroy, 4+ pts | 8.6% |
Ohio's 1st District margin of victory
| Landsman, 1+ pts | 90.1% | |
| Landsman, 2+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Landsman, 5+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Landsman, 8+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Landsman, 11+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Landsman, 14+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Landsman, 17+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Landsman, 20+ pts | 8.8% |
OH-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 3%+ | 1.6% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 5.3% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 12.0% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 17.3% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 14.1% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 10.5% | |
| Democrat 18-21% | 13.0% | |
| Democrat 21%+ | 9.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Greg Landsman: Counted · bid 91.7% / ask 93.9% · $2.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Greg Landsman: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 92.1% · $1.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Greg Landsman
If the House member sworn in for OH-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
