House · 3 November 2026

OH-14 House 2026

96.4% RDavid Joyce leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.4%
Kalshi: 96.6%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OH-14 House.

1 story this week

Top story

ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

David Joyce, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RDavid Joyce	96.4%		96.4%	96.6%	0.3 pts	–
DMaria Jukic	1.9%		1.6%	2.3%	0.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

David Joyce

Republican U.S. Representative for Ohio's 14th congressional district (since 2013)

David Joyce, a Republican former Geauga County prosecutor who has represented Ohio's 14th congressional district since 2013, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Maria Jukic, a Euclid City Council member.

Born 1957 · Cleveland, Ohio

Full candidate profile →

Maria Jukic

Democratic

Maria Jukic, a Euclid City Council member and Democrat, is her party's nominee for Ohio's 14th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent David Joyce in Northeast Ohio.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi596 contracts

Ohio's 14th District margin of victory

Joyce, 4+ pts		93.0%
Joyce, 7+ pts		83.5%
Joyce, 10+ pts		71.5%
Joyce, 13+ pts		57.5%
Joyce, 16+ pts		42.5%
Joyce, 19+ pts		28.5%
Joyce, 22+ pts		16.5%
Joyce, 25+ pts		8.5%
Joyce, 28+ pts		4.2%
Joyce, 31+ pts		6.2% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.7K traded

OH-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		3.3%
Republican 0-5%		5.4%
Republican 5-10%		15.4%
Republican 10-15%		30.6%
Republican 15-20%		22.0%
Republican 20-25%		14.0%
Republican 25-30%		10.9%
Republican 30%+		6.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$96.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

David Joyce: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 96.4% · $9.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.2K contracts traded