nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OH-15 House 2026

74.2% RMike Carey leads TruthIndex™Lean R
Polymarket
73.0%
Kalshi
74.5%
Spread
1.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OH-15 House.

Mike Carey, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RMike Carey 74.2% 73.0% 74.5% 1.5 pts –
DDon Leonard 25.9% 25.5% 26.0% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Don Leonard

Democratic

Don Leonard, a Democrat, is his party's nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2026 after defeating former state representative Adam Miller, and faces Republican incumbent Mike Carey.

Mike Carey

Mike Carey

Republican U.S. Representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district (since 2021)

Mike Carey, a Republican former coal lobbyist who has represented Ohio's 15th congressional district since winning a 2021 special election, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Don Leonard.

Born 1971 · Sabina, Ohio

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi669 contracts

Ohio's 15th District margin of victory

Carey, 2+ pts
64.5%
Carey, 5+ pts
48.5%
Carey, 8+ pts
31.5%
Carey, 11+ pts
16.5%
Carey, 14+ pts
9.6%
Carey, 17+ pts
4.9%
Carey, 20+ pts
6.5%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi4.0K contracts

Ohio's 15th District margin of victory

Leonard, 1+ pts
22.0%
Leonard, 4+ pts
13.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.3K traded

OH-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
3.1%
Republican 15-18%
3.4%
Republican 12-15%
–
Republican 9-12%
16.0%
Republican 6-9%
18.4%
Republican 3-6%
20.0%
Republican 0-3%
16.3%
Democrat 0-3%
11.6%
Democrat 3-6%
4.7%
Democrat 6%+
5.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$16.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Carey: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 74.0% · $7.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi29.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Carey: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $32.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Mike Carey

If the House member sworn in for OH-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Ohio

  1. Ohio Senate (special)D64%
  2. Ohio GovernorD71%
  3. OH-01 HouseD92%
  4. OH-02 HouseR97%
  5. OH-03 HouseD98%
  6. OH-04 HouseR96%
  7. OH-05 HouseR95%
  8. OH-06 HouseR97%