House · 3 November 2026

OH-08 House 2026

92.2% RWarren Davidson leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 93.0%
Kalshi: 92.2%
Spread: 0.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Warren Davidson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RWarren Davidson	92.2%		93.0%	92.2%	0.8 pts	–
DVanessa Enoch	7.0%		6.5%	7.1%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Vanessa Enoch

Democratic

Vanessa Enoch, a Democrat and perennial candidate, is her party's 2026 nominee for Ohio's 8th congressional district, where she faces Republican incumbent Warren Davidson in the general election.

Full candidate profile →

Warren Davidson

Republican U.S. Representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (since 2016)

Warren Davidson, a Republican and former Army officer who has represented Ohio's 8th congressional district since 2016, faces Democrat Vanessa Enoch in his 2026 bid for re-election.

Born 1970 · Sidney, Ohio

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi542 contracts

Ohio's 8th District margin of victory

Davidson, 2+ pts		84.5%
Davidson, 5+ pts		73.5%
Davidson, 8+ pts		59.5%
Davidson, 11+ pts		44.5%
Davidson, 14+ pts		30.5%
Davidson, 17+ pts		18.5%
Davidson, 20+ pts		9.8%
Davidson, 23+ pts		4.6%
Davidson, 26+ pts		6.3% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.0K traded

OH-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+		–
Republican 20-25%		10.8%
Republican 15-20%		–
Republican 10-15%		24.0%
Republican 5-10%		27.5%
Republican 0-5%		23.5%
Democrat 0-5%		6.5%
Democrat 5%+		0.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$18.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Warren Davidson: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 94.0% · $501 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.6K contracts traded