House · 3 November 2026

OH-09 House 2026

72.0% DMarcy Kaptur leads TruthIndex™Lean D

Polymarket: 71.5%
Kalshi: 72.0%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OH-09 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

Ohio data center legislation drew hordes of lobbyists

The article notes political activity around Ohio’s 1st Congressional District (OH-01) involving Rep. Greg Landsman (D) and Republican challenger Eric Conroy.

signalohio.orgYesterday

Landsman Merrin Conroy

Wednesday, Oct 14
Derek Merrin Campaigns Everywhere but Northwest Ohio - Ohio Democrats
The article targets Derek Merrin’s campaign behavior in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District (OH-09), contrasting him with Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

ohiodems.orgYesterdayHouchin Merrin
Ohio Dems Taught to Avoid Israel ‘Like the Plague,’ Encouraged to Make Up Answers for Voters
Derek Merrin is the Republican challenger in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. The seat, currently held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur since 1983, became more competitive after 2025 redistricting, with the district leaning…

townhall.comYesterdayMerrin

Marcy Kaptur, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMarcy Kaptur	72.0%		71.5%	72.0%	0.5 pts	–
RDerek Merrin	28.4%		27.5%	28.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/oh-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-oh-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Derek Merrin

Republican

Derek Merrin, a Republican former Ohio state representative who narrowly lost to Marcy Kaptur in 2024, is his party's 2026 nominee for Ohio's 9th congressional district in a rematch with the Democratic incumbent.

Smithtown, New York

Full candidate profile →

Marcy Kaptur

Democratic U.S. Representative for Ohio's 9th congressional district (since 1983)

Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has represented Ohio's 9th congressional district since 1983 and is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, faces Republican Derek Merrin and Libertarian Matthew Althaus in 2026.

Born 1946 · Toledo, Ohio

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.4K contracts

Ohio's 9th District margin of victory

Merrin, 3+ pts		18.5%
Merrin, 6+ pts		10.7%
Merrin, 9+ pts		5.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi8.5K contracts

Ohio's 9th District margin of victory

Kaptur, 1+ pts		61.5%
Kaptur, 3+ pts		58.5%
Kaptur, 6+ pts		51.0%
Kaptur, 9+ pts		31.5%
Kaptur, 12+ pts		20.0%
Kaptur, 15+ pts		12.8%
Kaptur, 18+ pts		7.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.3K traded

OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		0.5%
Republican 9-12%		0.7%
Republican 6-9%		0.7%
Republican 3-6%		7.0%
Republican 0-3%		13.9%
Democrat 0-3%		17.5%
Democrat 3-6%		17.0%
Democrat 6-9%		13.0%
Democrat 9-12%		13.2%
Democrat 12%+		14.6%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$44.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Marcy Kaptur: Counted · bid 71.0% / ask 72.0% · $6.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi95.2K contracts traded