US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for OH-10 House.
The article profiles U.S. Representative Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), incumbent in Ohio’s 13th District, who is running for reelection against Republican Carey Coleman.
SykesKnickerbocker
ClarkDulaneyKristina Knickerbocker, the Democratic nominee challenging U.S. Rep. Mike Turner in Ohio’s 10th District, is under GOP scrutiny over questions about her disabilities.
The article covers the race for Ohio House District 19, featuring candidates Ed Hargate and Nicole Sigurdson vying to succeed incumbent Rep. Phillip Robinson (D-Solon).
HouchinDulaneyShaverThe page discusses Ohio’s new congressional map in the context of State Affairs Pro’s coverage, with Gongwer Ohio reporting on evolving political implications.
The page covers the Ohio House District 11 race between Democrat Crystal Lett (Columbus) and Republican Shawn Kaeser, with Lett seeking a second term.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMike Turner | 83.0% | 83.0% | 83.0% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DKristina Knickerbocker | 16.5% | 18.0% | 16.0% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Kristina Knickerbocker, a U.S. Air Force veteran and Democrat, is her party's nominee for Ohio's 10th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Mike Turner and Libertarian Thomas McMasters.
Mike Turner, a Republican who served as mayor of Dayton from 1994 to 2002 and has represented Ohio's 10th congressional district since 2013, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Ohio's 10th District margin of victory
| Turner, 3+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Turner, 6+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Turner, 9+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Turner, 12+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Turner, 15+ pts | 12.7% | |
| Turner, 18+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Turner, 21+ pts | 3.3% |
OH-10 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 5.8% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 4.1% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 4.2% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 10.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 20.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 7.3% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 7.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Mike Turner: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 84.0% · $4.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mike Turner: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 84.0% · $33.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Turner
If the House member sworn in for OH-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
