House · 3 November 2026

OH-11 House 2026

98.0% DShontel Brown leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 98.0%
Kalshi: 98.4%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Shontel Brown, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DShontel Brown	98.0%		98.0%	98.4%	0.5 pts	–
RMike Kirchner	0.8%		0.8%	0.8%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mike Kirchner

Republican

Mike Kirchner, a retired consulting actuary and Republican, is his party's nominee for Ohio's 11th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Shontel Brown in the Cleveland-based seat.

Full candidate profile →

Shontel Brown

Democratic U.S. Representative for Ohio's 11th congressional district (since 2021)

Shontel Brown, a Democrat who has represented Ohio's 11th congressional district since winning a 2021 special election, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Mike Kirchner, a retired consulting actuary.

Born 1975 · Cleveland, Ohio

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi202 contracts

Ohio's 11th District margin of victory

Brown, 47+ pts		95.2%
Brown, 50+ pts		86.5%
Brown, 53+ pts		77.5%
Brown, 56+ pts		68.5%
Brown, 59+ pts		59.5%
Brown, 62+ pts		47.5%
Brown, 65+ pts		35.5%
Brown, 68+ pts		23.5%
Brown, 71+ pts		11.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.7K traded

OH-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		3.1%
Democrat 0-35%		2.9%
Democrat 35-45%		3.3%
Democrat 45-50%		2.6%
Democrat 50-55%		6.5%
Democrat 55-60%		28.0%
Democrat 60-65%		29.0%
Democrat 65-70%		19.5%
Democrat 70-75%		–
Democrat 75%+		0.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$39.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Shontel Brown: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 99.8% · $1.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.5K contracts traded