US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for PA-03 House.
Candidatura en Pensilvania (PA-02): Jessica Arriaga, puertorriqueña nacida en North Philadelphia, es la rival republicana de Boyle en las elecciones de medio término.
The article reports that Chris Rabb, a progressive Democrat and Pennsylvania state legislator, is favored to win the U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District.
The article discusses Dave McCormick’s view on the economy and gas prices, noting he believes the GOP earned a "pretty good" report card on the economy but concedes fuel prices remain too high.
RabbNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DChris Rabb | 98.1% | 97.8% | 98.6% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RRepublican Party | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4 pts | – |
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Chris Rabb, a Democrat and democratic socialist who has represented the 200th district in the Pennsylvania House since 2017, is the nominee for Pennsylvania's open 3rd congressional district in 2026 against independent Dennis Mahoney.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 3rd District margin of victory
| Rabb, 64+ pts | 95.1% | |
| Rabb, 67+ pts | 94.1% | |
| Rabb, 70+ pts | 93.5% | |
| Rabb, 73+ pts | 92.0% | |
| Rabb, 76+ pts | 90.6% | |
| Rabb, 79+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Rabb, 82+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Rabb, 85+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Rabb, 88+ pts | 79.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Chris Rabb: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 99.1% · $4.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Chris Rabb: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.8% · $3.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Chris Rabb
If the House member sworn in for PA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
