House · 3 November 2026

PA-12 House 2026

97.7% DSummer Lee leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.4%
Kalshi: 98.0%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for PA-12 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

NZ Live: Greg Johnson

Biography: Johnson spent decades based in California and has returned to NZ for a 60th birthday tour.

RNZ (Radio New Zealand)17h agoHayes

Yesterday
Auburn vs. Georgia Free Pick Today, CFB Betting Odds – 10/17/26
Article by James Hayes on CappersPicks.com discusses a free college football pick: Auburn vs. Georgia, with betting odds and analysis dated October 17, 2026.

capperspicks.com16h agoHayes
Wednesday, Oct 14
Teenage Engineering OP-XY: Update 1.2.0 Features Multi-Channel USB and a New Drum Synth! – Review
The article is a hands-on review of the Teenage Engineering OP-XY, focusing on Update 1.2.0 which adds multi-channel USB and a new drum synth.

gearnews.comYesterdayHayes
Facing Desperation to Find Nourishment, Parched Kenyans Rely on the Doum Palm Plant
Prolonged drought decimates livestock; Ebey’s herd has shrunk from about 50 to a handful.

royallounge.co.ukYesterdayHayes

Summer Lee, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSummer Lee	97.7%		97.4%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–
RJames Hayes	1.1%		0.9%	1.3%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/pa-12/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-pa-12">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

James Hayes

Republican

James Hayes, a Republican manufacturing executive who was the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Summer Lee again in the 2026 race for the seat.

Full candidate profile →

Summer Lee

Democratic U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (since 2023)

Summer Lee, a Democrat who has represented Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district since 2023, is seeking re-election in 2026 in a rematch against Republican James Hayes, a manufacturing executive.

Born 1987 · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi565 contracts

Pennsylvania's 12th District margin of victory

Lee, 12+ pts		84.5%
Lee, 15+ pts		76.5%
Lee, 18+ pts		69.5%
Lee, 21+ pts		61.5%
Lee, 24+ pts		51.5%
Lee, 27+ pts		40.5%
Lee, 30+ pts		31.5%
Lee, 33+ pts		20.5%
Lee, 36+ pts		9.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.9K traded

PA-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1%
Democrat 0-10%		0.5%
Democrat 10-15%		2.7%
Democrat 15-20%		11.5%
Democrat 20-25%		13.0%
Democrat 25-30%		23.0%
Democrat 30-35%		30.3%
Democrat 35-40%		4.1%
Democrat 40%+		2.9%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Summer Lee: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi62.4K contracts traded