nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

PA-14 House 2026

96.2% RGuy Reschenthaler leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.2%
Kalshi
96.0%
Spread
0.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for PA-14 House.

  1. Special election for vacant House seat set for March 25.

    The article reports that a special election has been scheduled for March 25 to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania. It does not provide details about the specific district number or candidates in the excerpt.

    pro.stateaffairs.comArriagaFarnhamBradstock
  2. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  3. ALPR Cameras in Focus for Pennsylvania House | Harrisburg

    The article covers ALPR (Automatic License Plate Reader) cameras being debated in the Pennsylvania House, with HB2771 advancing through committee and potentially reaching a floor vote next week.

    WSEEBradstock
  4. "Both Sides Now:" Pa. House District 145 | Guest Opinion

    Summary tailored to your query: “Alan Bradstock” PA-14 House

    Bucks County HeraldBradstock
  5. "Both Sides Now:" Pa. House District 142 | Guest Opinion

    The article is a guest opinion about Pennsylvania’s 142nd House District, which includes Lower Southampton and parts of Middletown and Northampton townships, as well as the boroughs of Langhorne, Langhorne Manor, and…

    Bucks County HeraldBradstock

Guy Reschenthaler, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RGuy Reschenthaler 96.2% 96.2% 96.0% 0.3 pts –
DAlan Bradstock 3.5% 3.6% 3.2% 0.4 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/pa-14/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-pa-14">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Alan Bradstock

Democratic

Alan Bradstock, a Democrat and retired FBI agent, is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Guy Reschenthaler in the November general election.

Guy Reschenthaler

Guy Reschenthaler

Republican U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (since 2019)

Guy Reschenthaler, a Republican who has represented Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district since 2019 and serves as Republican chief deputy whip, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Alan Bradstock, a retired FBI agent.

Born 1983 · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi503 contracts

Pennsylvania's 14th District margin of victory

Reschenthaler, 17+ pts
89.1%
Reschenthaler, 20+ pts
78.0%
Reschenthaler, 23+ pts
66.5%
Reschenthaler, 26+ pts
55.5%
Reschenthaler, 29+ pts
44.5%
Reschenthaler, 32+ pts
33.5%
Reschenthaler, 35+ pts
22.5%
Reschenthaler, 38+ pts
15.0%
Reschenthaler, 41+ pts
7.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.3K traded

PA-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
1.6%
Republican 0-5%
3.6%
Republican 5-15%
12.5%
Republican 15-20%
13.5%
Republican 20-25%
26.5%
Republican 25-30%
20.3%
Republican 30-35%
6.7%
Republican 35-40%
2.0%
Republican 40-45%
–
Republican 45%+
–
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$41.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Guy Reschenthaler: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 96.5% · $7.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Guy Reschenthaler: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 97.9% · $1.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Guy Reschenthaler

If the House member sworn in for PA-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Pennsylvania

  1. Pennsylvania GovernorD98%
  2. PA-01 HouseR64%
  3. PA-02 HouseD96%
  4. PA-03 HouseD98%
  5. PA-04 HouseD96%
  6. PA-05 HouseD98%
  7. PA-06 HouseD97%
  8. PA-07 HouseD86%