House · 3 November 2026

WA-07 House 2026

98.0% DPramila Jayapal leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.8%
Kalshi: 98.3%
Spread: 1.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Pramila Jayapal, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DPramila Jayapal	98.0%		97.8%	98.3%	0.4 pts	–
RNirav Sheth	2.0%		2.2%	1.0%	1.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-07/embed.html" title="WA-07 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wa-07">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wa-07"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-07/card-landscape.png" alt="WA-07 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Nirav Sheth

Republican

Nirav Sheth, a Republican restaurant owner who ran for Washington's 10th congressional district in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Pramila Jayapal for the 7th district seat in the 2026 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Pramila Jayapal

Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th congressional district (since 2017)

Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 7th congressional district since 2017 and chaired the Congressional Progressive Caucus from 2021 to 2025, faces Republican restaurant owner Nirav Sheth in 2026.

Born 1965 · Chennai, India

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi565 contracts

Washington's 7th District margin of victory

Jayapal, 65+ pts		95.9%
Jayapal, 68+ pts		94.8%
Jayapal, 71+ pts		91.7%
Jayapal, 74+ pts		84.0%
Jayapal, 77+ pts		72.0%
Jayapal, 80+ pts		55.0%
Jayapal, 83+ pts		–
Jayapal, 86+ pts		16.0%
Jayapal, 89+ pts		5.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$1.5K traded

WA-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.5%
Democrat 0-50%		–
Democrat 50-60%		–
Democrat 60-65%		–
Democrat 65-70%		–
Democrat 70-75%		–
Democrat 75-80%		–
Democrat 80-85%		–
Democrat 85-90%		–
Democrat 90%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$34.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Pramila Jayapal: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 98.3% · $1.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi612 contracts traded