nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Illinois Senate 2026

98.4% DJuliana Stratton leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
98.6%
Kalshi
98.4%
Spread
0.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Illinois Senate.

  1. GOP Candidate for U.S. Senate Don Tracy makes his case as Election Day approaches

    Illinois voters haven’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2010, but Don Tracy is campaigning hard in hopes of defeating Democratic nominee and two-term Lieutenant Governor, Juliana Stratton. [...] Tracy.

    WGN NewsTracy
  2. Collin Corbett on His Independent Campaign for Illinois Governor, Cutting Taxes and School Funding | Chicago News

    Corbett is a former Republican and founder of political consulting firm Cor Strategies. The firm helped secure a spot on the ballot for Republican U.S. Senate nominee Don Tracy in the March primary.

    news.wttw.comTracy
  3. Lobbyist campaign cash helps fuel Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's run for U.S. Senate seat - Chicago Sun-Times

    As she vies to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is accepting a number of campaign contributions from lobbyists representing special interests, records show.

    Chicago Sun-TimesTracyStrattonAlso in Wirepoints
  4. Guns, F-bombs, alpacas. What do wild 2026 campaign ads say?

    "They're usually just sort of, 'How can I activate latent beliefs that somebody already has with very, very simple language and simple images?'" Shelton told USA TODAY.

    Detroit Free PressStratton
  5. Closed cases, open races

    We asked what outsiders don’t understand about Illinois politics.

    PoliticoTracyPritzker
More coverage 8
  1. Illinois Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results

    See whether Illinois's 2026 early voters participated in the 2022 and 2024 elections, broken down by party.

    NBC NewsTracy
  2. Illinois comptroller race: Croke vs. Drew for lone open statewide seat

    Since the end of June, Drew has received money from Republican donors including Don Tracy, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate and former state party chair, U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood of Peoria and state Sen.

    Chicago TribuneTracy
  3. Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates

    There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.

    thelistwire.usatoday.comAchillesMarkerHernWessBookerBengsMcKayAndersonBradshawStrattonLetlowDeatonRischDavisRoundsHageman
  4. U.S. Senate candidate Juliana Stratton talks about whether ...

    Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, edging out two sitting members of the U.S. House. in a race that will see her

    www.facebook.comSocial postStratton
  5. When @julianaforillinois launched her first campaign for ...

    Juliana Stratton is running for Senate in Illinois on Medicare for All without a single dollar of corporate PAC money. Lucky you if you get to vote for her

    InstagramSocial postStratton
  6. Stratton seeks Illinois U.S. Senate seat in November

    Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026, general election.

    napertoday.comStratton
  7. Although the numbers are in Stratton's favor in blue Illinois ...

    Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, edging out two sitting members of the U.S. House. in a race that will see her

    www.facebook.comSocial postStratton
  8. 20 days until Election Day, and I need YOU to ...

    Juliana Stratton, the Lieutenant Governor of Illinois and a U.S. Senate candidate, shares her personal journey into politics. She explains that her experience

    www.facebook.comSocial postStratton

Juliana Stratton, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJuliana Stratton 98.4% 98.6% 98.4% 0.2 pts –
RDon Tracy 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Don Tracy

Don Tracy

Republican

Don Tracy, a Springfield lawyer who chaired the Illinois Gaming Board and the Illinois Republican Party, is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Illinois in 2026.

Urbana
Juliana Stratton

Juliana Stratton

Democratic Lieutenant Governor of Illinois (since 2019)

Juliana Stratton, a Democrat and lieutenant governor of Illinois since 2019, won her party's 2026 nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Senator Dick Durbin.

Born 1965 · Chicago, Illinois

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Illinois Senate margin of victory

Stratton, 9+ pts
89.1%
Stratton, 11+ pts
86.0%
Stratton, 13+ pts
80.0%
Stratton, 15+ pts
72.5%
Stratton, 17+ pts
64.5%
Stratton, 19+ pts
55.5%
Stratton, 21+ pts
46.5%
Stratton, 23+ pts
38.5%
Stratton, 25+ pts
29.5%
Stratton, 27+ pts
22.5%
Stratton, 29+ pts
17.5%
Stratton, 31+ pts
10.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$6.3K traded

Illinois Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.9%
Democrat 0-5%
2.1%
Democrat 5-10%
10.1%
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
15.0%
Democrat 20-25%
29.0%
Democrat 25-30%
10.0%
Democrat 30-35%
15.5%
Democrat 35%+
2.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Juliana Stratton: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.7% · $3.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi19.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Juliana Stratton: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 99.6% · $18.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Juliana Stratton

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Illinois for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Illinois

  1. Illinois GovernorD97%
  2. IL-01 HouseD96%
  3. IL-02 HouseD96%
  4. IL-03 HouseD96%
  5. IL-04 HouseD96%
  6. IL-05 HouseD97%
  7. IL-06 HouseD97%
  8. IL-07 HouseD97%