Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

New Jersey Senate 2026

96.8% DCory Booker leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.0%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
0.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for New Jersey Senate.

  1. Republicans praise Murphy’s debate performance against Booker

    Two Republican state lawmakers are praising U.S. Senate candidate Justin Murphy's performance in last week's debate against Democratic incumbent Cory.

    newjerseyglobe.comMurphy
  2. When does early voting start in New Jersey and elsewhere?

    To verify if your registration is active check online at the registration check portal. In New Jersey, voter registration does not expire, unless you move or change your name.

    aol.comMurphy
  3. Susan Collins Pays Out $105 to Win Maine Senate: Latest Polls Show Statistical Tie
    gambling911.comMcKayAndersonMurphy
  4. Justin Murphy raises $35,860 for race vs Cory Booker, has less than $10,000 in bank

    Justin Murphy, a Republican challenging Cory Booker for U.S. Senate in New Jersey, reported a low fundraising haul for Q3: $35,860 raised and $9,578 cash on hand at the end of September.

    newjerseyglobe.comMurphyBooker
  5. Tracking the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in 2026

    The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.

More coverage 8
  1. Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates

    There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.

  2. Odds Continue to Tighten in Texas Senate Race: Ken Paxton Payout Odds $150
  3. College Sports Reform Bill Clears 1st Hurdle After Senate Vote

    The article reports that a college sports reform bill passed its first Senate hurdle, with a notable split among votes.

    vermontsportsnews.comBooker
  4. Lawmakers call for audit of wild horse sale program

    Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) co-led a bipartisan push with 17 other lawmakers in September to have the Government Accountability Office audit the Bureau of Land Management’s Wild Horse and Burro Sale Program.

    The HillBooker
  5. Booker and Murphy Debate in Race for U.S. Senate

    The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all predict the race is either Solid Democrat or Safe Democrat.

    thesandpaper.netBookerMurphy
  6. ROONEY: GOP would be stronger in 2026 had they "stuck to their guns" like Justin Murphy

    The article discusses Justin Murphy, a New Jersey Senate candidate challenging Cory Booker, and argues that the GOP would be stronger in 2026 if current Republicans had “stuck to their guns” like Murphy.

    spotonnewjersey.comMurphyBookerAlso in Save Jersey
  7. ‘Put your cowboy hat on & kick a**’: GOP challenger leaves Cory Booker ‘wowed’; Internet explodes

    Justin Murphy, the GOP challenger in the New Jersey Senate race, made a fiery debate moment that captivated audiences.

    economictimes.indiatimes.comMurphyBookerAlso in The Economic Times
  8. Who Is on the Ballot? Where Can I Vote?

    The U.S. Senate is comprised of two representatives from each state, and each has a six-year term. Two years ago, Andy Kim was elected to one of the seats. This year, there are four candidates vying for the other.

    princetonperspectives.comBooker

Cory Booker, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DCory Booker 96.8% 97.0% 96.8% 0.2 pts –
RJustin Murphy 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 0.4 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Cory Booker

Cory Booker

Democratic United States Senator from New Jersey (since 2013)

Democratic U.S. senator from New Jersey since 2013 and former mayor of Newark, seeking a third full Senate term against Republican Justin Murphy in 2026.

Born 1969 · Washington, D.C.
Justin Murphy

Justin Murphy

Republican

Justin Murphy, who served as deputy mayor of Tabernacle Township, is the Republican nominee challenging Democratic senator Cory Booker in New Jersey's 2026 U.S. Senate election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.4K contracts

New Jersey Senate margin of victory

Booker, 9+ pts
93.4%
Booker, 11+ pts
90.5%
Booker, 13+ pts
87.8%
Booker, 15+ pts
82.0%
Booker, 17+ pts
76.5%
Booker, 19+ pts
67.0%
Booker, 21+ pts
57.0%
Booker, 23+ pts
48.5%
Booker, 25+ pts
37.0%
Booker, 27+ pts
29.5%
Booker, 29+ pts
17.5%
Booker, 31+ pts
12.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.6K traded

New Jersey Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 3%+
1.9%
Republican 0-3%
1.8%
Democrat 0-3%
3.8%
Democrat 3-6%
3.3%
Democrat 6-9%
4.4%
Democrat 9-12%
7.2%
Democrat 12-15%
10.4%
Democrat 15-18%
12.6%
Democrat 18-21%
14.5%
Democrat 21%+
50.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$23.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Cory Booker: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 97.3% · $4.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi127.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Cory Booker: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 97.2% · $15.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Cory Booker

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of New Jersey for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi