House · 3 November 2026

NJ-07 House 2026

91.0% DRebecca Bennett leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 91.0%
Kalshi: 91.1%
Spread: 0.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Rebecca Bennett, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DRebecca Bennett	91.0%		91.0%	91.1%	0.1 pts	–
RThomas Kean Jr.	8.7%		9.0%	8.6%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Rebecca Bennett

Democratic

Rebecca Bennett, a healthcare executive and former United States Navy aviator, is the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr.

Full candidate profile →

Thomas Kean Jr.

Republican U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 7th congressional district (since 2023)

Thomas Kean Jr., a Republican who has represented New Jersey's 7th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a healthcare executive and former Navy aviator.

Born 1968 · Livingston, New Jersey

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi719 contracts

New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory

Kean, 1+ pts		7.3%
Kean, 4+ pts		4.2%
Kean, 7+ pts		5.9% implied
Kean, 10+ pts		5.0% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi5.1K contracts

New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory

Bennett, 2+ pts		83.5%
Bennett, 5+ pts		68.5%
Bennett, 8+ pts		51.5%
Bennett, 11+ pts		39.0%
Bennett, 14+ pts		25.5%
Bennett, 17+ pts		13.7%
Bennett, 20+ pts		6.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.8K traded

NJ-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+		2.9%
Republican 3-6%		8.6%
Republican 0-3%		8.8%
Democrat 0-3%		22.2%
Democrat 3-6%		19.0%
Democrat 6-9%		18.8%
Democrat 9-12%		13.8%
Democrat 12-15%		5.7%
Democrat 15-18%		3.2%
Democrat 18%+		1.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$49.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Rebecca Bennett: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 92.0% · $12.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi219.9K contracts traded