House · 3 November 2026

NJ-06 House 2026

96.9% DFrank Pallone leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.5%
Kalshi: 97.4%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NJ-06 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Republican Hillary Herzig Challenges Democrat Frank Pallone For U.S. Congress

OCEANPORT, NJ: Hillary Herzig is the Republican running against Democrat Frank Pallone this year for U.S. Congress.

PatchYesterdayHerzig

Pallone Mele

Smith Bucco DiLorenzo

Yesterday
Rep. Pallone Says It “Can’t Be a Coincidence” Trump Floated Buying Russian Diesel Just as His “Trillionaire Buddy” Made It Harder for Ukraine to Defend Itself, Calls It a “Sinful Betrayal”
Rep. Frank Pallone, the New Jersey Democrat, accused President Donald Trump on Thursday of standing by as Ukraine’s battlefield lifeline was squeezed.

News Break19h agoPallone
New Jerseyans to start midterm elections next week. What to know
District 7 (Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren)- Incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. (R); Rebecca Bennett (D); Seamus O'Toole (Stop Israel's Genocide Party).

The Asbury Park Press23h agoMcIver Hathaway Pallone
JCC of Middlesex County Commemorates Oct. 7
Rep. Frank Pallone, (6th District) closed the segment by saying the focus should be on holding the general media, tech giants and social media responsible for the spread of misinformation and accelerating the speed of…

Jewish LinkYesterdayPallone

Frank Pallone, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DFrank Pallone	96.9%		96.5%	97.4%	0.9 pts	–
RHillary Herzig	1.8%		1.4%	2.4%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nj-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nj-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Frank Pallone

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 6th congressional district (since 1988)

Frank Pallone, a Democrat who has represented New Jersey in the U.S. House since 1988, seeks re-election in the 6th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Hillary Herzig, a civil servant.

Born 1951 · Long Branch, New Jersey

Full candidate profile →

Hillary Herzig

Republican

Hillary Herzig, a Republican civil servant, is the party's nominee for New Jersey's 6th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi345 contracts

New Jersey's 6th District margin of victory

Pallone, 10+ pts		96.2%
Pallone, 13+ pts		94.3%
Pallone, 16+ pts		88.0%
Pallone, 19+ pts		78.5%
Pallone, 22+ pts		65.5%
Pallone, 25+ pts		50.5%
Pallone, 28+ pts		35.5%
Pallone, 31+ pts		22.5%
Pallone, 34+ pts		11.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.1K traded

NJ-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.3% implied
Democrat 0-10%		0.1%
Democrat 10-15%		0.1% implied
Democrat 15-20%		–
Democrat 20-25%		22.5%
Democrat 25-30%		27.5%
Democrat 30-35%		10.0%
Democrat 35-40%		1.9%
Democrat 40%+		4.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$34.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Frank Pallone: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 98.3% · $696 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.1K contracts traded