House · 3 November 2026

NJ-09 House 2026

96.7% DNellie Pou leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.8%
Kalshi: 96.7%
Spread: 1.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Nellie Pou, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DNellie Pou	96.7%		96.8%	96.7%	0.1 pts	–
RRosie Pino	3.0%		1.9%	3.0%	1.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Nellie Pou

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 9th congressional district (since 2025)

Nellie Pou, a Democrat who has represented New Jersey's 9th congressional district since 2025 after serving in the New Jersey Senate, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Rosie Pino, a Clifton city councilor.

Born 1956 · Paterson, New Jersey

Full candidate profile →

Rosie Pino

Republican

Rosie Pino, a Republican Clifton city councilor, is the party's nominee for New Jersey's 9th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.3K contracts

New Jersey's 9th District margin of victory

Pou, 2+ pts		92.0%
Pou, 5+ pts		83.5%
Pou, 8+ pts		71.0%
Pou, 11+ pts		59.5%
Pou, 14+ pts		45.5%
Pou, 17+ pts		31.5%
Pou, 20+ pts		20.0%
Pou, 23+ pts		10.0%
Pou, 26+ pts		4.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$7.8K traded

NJ-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		4.2%
Democrat 0-5%		5.5%
Democrat 5-10%		7.0%
Democrat 10-15%		22.0%
Democrat 15-20%		30.5%
Democrat 20-25%		28.5%
Democrat 25-30%		5.7%
Democrat 30%+		4.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$40.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Nellie Pou: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 97.9% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.2K contracts traded