nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NJ-04 House 2026

97.3% RChris Smith leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
97.4%
Kalshi
97.2%
Spread
0.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.9
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NJ-04 House.

  1. Correa and Smith introduce the bipartisan Bright Beginnings Act to expand childcare for children with developmental disabilities

    Topic: Bipartisan Bright Beginnings Act introduced by U.S. Representatives Lou Correa (D-CA, CA-46) and Chris Smith (R-NJ).

    fullertonobserver.comCorreaSmith
  2. CORREA, SMITH INTRODUCE BIPARTISAN BRIGHT BEGINNINGS ACT TO EXPAND CHILDCARE FOR CHILDREN WITH DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES

    The Bright Beginnings Act is a bipartisan bill introduced by Rep. Lou Correa (D-CA) and Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) to expand childcare for children with developmental disabilities.

    correa.house.govOfficialCorreaSmith
  3. Republican Hillary Herzig Challenges Democrat Frank Pallone For U.S. Congress

    OCEANPORT, NJ: Hillary Herzig is the Republican running against Democrat Frank Pallone this year for U.S. Congress.

    PatchHerzigPalloneMeleSmithBuccoDiLorenzo
  4. CROSSING PARTY LINES: Lakewood Vaad Endorses Booker, Smith and Local Candidates, Urges No Vote on School Board Question

    The provided page appears to be a loading/verification page from matzav.com, with no visible content about Chris Smith or NJ-04 House race.

    matzav.comSmith

Chris Smith, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RChris Smith 97.3% 97.4% 97.2% 0.2 pts –
DRachel Peace 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nj-04/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nj-04">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Chris Smith

Chris Smith

Republican U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 4th congressional district (since 1981)

Chris Smith, a Republican who has represented New Jersey's 4th congressional district since 1981 and is the dean of the state's congressional delegation, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Rachel Peace, a business owner.

Born 1953 · Rahway, New Jersey

Rachel Peace

Democratic

Rachel Peace, a Democratic business owner, is her party's nominee for New Jersey's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing longtime Republican incumbent Chris Smith in the November general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi566 contracts

New Jersey's 4th District margin of victory

Smith, 13+ pts
95.5%
Smith, 16+ pts
93.3%
Smith, 19+ pts
85.0%
Smith, 22+ pts
73.5%
Smith, 25+ pts
57.5%
Smith, 28+ pts
45.5%
Smith, 31+ pts
32.0%
Smith, 34+ pts
20.0%
Smith, 37+ pts
9.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.8K traded

NJ-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.1%
Republican 0-10%
1.3%
Republican 10-15%
1.2%
Republican 15-20%
20.2%
Republican 20-25%
25.5%
Republican 25-30%
–
Republican 30-35%
18.3%
Republican 35-40%
16.0%
Republican 40%+
0.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$19.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Chris Smith: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.8% · $838 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.8K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Chris Smith: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.0% · $1.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Chris Smith

If the House member sworn in for NJ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New Jersey

  1. New Jersey SenateD97%
  2. NJ-01 HouseD96%
  3. NJ-02 HouseR83%
  4. NJ-03 HouseD97%
  5. NJ-05 HouseD96%
  6. NJ-06 HouseD97%
  7. NJ-07 HouseD91%
  8. NJ-08 HouseD96%