NJ-12 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 97.0%
- Kalshi
- 97.8%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.4
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for NJ-12 House.
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Van Drew and Pou, targeted by the opposite parties, swamp their opponents in campaign cash
The article covers fundraising and campaign dynamics in New Jersey’s House races, focusing on candidates Van Drew (NJ-02) and Nellie Pou (NJ-11), with mention of overall competitive activity in the state.
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Pemilu AS: Potensi Terpilihnya Seorang Muslim untuk Pertama Kalinya di Senat AS
The article reports that Chris Rabb, a progressive Democrat and Pennsylvania state legislator, is favored to win the U.S. House seat in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District.
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RELEASE: Gottheimer Discusses AI Policy at the University of Pennsylvania
The bipartisan American AI Security Act, with Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17), to require pre-deployment testing to address AI’s national security risks.
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House Democrats add eight seats to midterm target map month before election day
The article reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added eight target districts to its midterm map, aiming to flip seats currently held by Republicans or an open seat.
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POLITICO Pro | Article
The Politico Pro piece analyzes Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s vulnerabilities in New Jersey’s 2nd District (NJ-12) as Democrats contemplate making the district competitive.
No story this week names this candidate.
Adam Hamawy, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAdam Hamawy | 97.4% | 97.0% | 97.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RGregg Mele | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Adam Hamawy
Adam Hamawy, a Democrat and surgeon who served as a U.S. Army physician in the Iraq War, is his party's nominee for New Jersey's open 12th district seat in 2026 against Republican Gregg Mele.
Gregg Mele
Gregg Mele is the Republican nominee for New Jersey's open 12th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Adam Hamawy, a surgeon, and Green Party candidate Andres Jinete on November 3.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi57 contracts
New Jersey's 12th District margin of victory
| Hamawy, 19+ pts | 92.4% implied | |
| Hamawy, 22+ pts | 94.0% | |
| Hamawy, 25+ pts | 87.3% | |
| Hamawy, 28+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Hamawy, 31+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Hamawy, 34+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Hamawy, 37+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Hamawy, 40+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Hamawy, 43+ pts | 9.7% |
Polymarket$11.8K traded
NJ-12 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 5.1% | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 2.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 7.8% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 27.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 31.1% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 6.3% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$30.4K traded
Prices which party wins.
Adam Hamawy: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 97.1% · $688 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi11.8K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Adam Hamawy: Counted · bid 97.7% / ask 98.0% · $673 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Adam Hamawy
If the House member sworn in for NJ-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in New Jersey
- New Jersey SenateD97%
- NJ-01 HouseD96%
- NJ-02 HouseR83%
- NJ-03 HouseD97%
- NJ-04 HouseR97%
- NJ-05 HouseD96%
- NJ-06 HouseD97%
- NJ-07 HouseD91%