US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NJ-05 House.
Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.
Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05) attended the Hillsdale Annual Fall Festival in Hillsdale, NJ, gathering with Jersey families, small business owners, elected officials, and law enforcement to celebrate the fall season and North…
A bipartisan bill introduced on Sept. 9 by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) seeks to regulate AI agents by rejecting self-attestation as the sole basis for compliance.
GottheimerThe article discusses Democratic leadership dynamics in the House, highlighting Rep. Katherine Clark as a potential top leader if Democrats win the chamber.
ClarkGottheimer
Cleaver
FosterCongressman Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5) visited St. Paul Ukrainian Catholic Church in Ramsey, NJ, meeting with Ukrainian community members and faith leaders.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJosh Gottheimer | 96.4% | 95.8% | 96.4% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| RSean Kirrane | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat who has represented New Jersey's 5th congressional district since 2017 and ran for governor in 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Sean Kirrane, a corporate consultant.
Sean Kirrane, a Republican corporate consultant, is his party's nominee for New Jersey's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New Jersey's 5th District margin of victory
| Gottheimer, 4+ pts | 93.0% implied | |
| Gottheimer, 7+ pts | 94.5% | |
| Gottheimer, 10+ pts | 88.8% | |
| Gottheimer, 13+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Gottheimer, 16+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Gottheimer, 19+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Gottheimer, 22+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Gottheimer, 25+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Gottheimer, 28+ pts | 13.9% | |
| Gottheimer, 31+ pts | 6.8% | |
| Gottheimer, 34+ pts | 4.1% |
NJ-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 4.1% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 9.8% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 18.0% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 30.8% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 7.4% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 9.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Josh Gottheimer: Counted · bid 93.8% / ask 97.7% · $877 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Josh Gottheimer: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.5% · $23.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Josh Gottheimer
If the House member sworn in for NJ-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
