Top story
Van Drew and Pou, targeted by the opposite parties, swamp their opponents in campaign cash
The article focuses on fundraising for New Jersey House campaigns, highlighting Rep.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
NJ-02 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 83.5%
- Kalshi
- 83.0%
- Spread
- 1.5 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +3.0
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for NJ-02 House.
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Pensilvania y Nueva Jersey tendrán contiendas cerradas en distritos con enclaves puertorriqueños
Candidatura en Pensilvania (PA-02): Jessica Arriaga, puertorriqueña nacida en North Philadelphia, es la rival republicana de Boyle en las elecciones de medio término.
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The National Police Association Backs the Fight Against Fentanyl Act
The National Police Association (NPA) endorses the Fight Against Fentanyl Act (H.R. 10678), introduced by Rep. Tom Kean (NJ-07) and co-sponsored by Rep. Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02), Rep. Andrew Garbarino (NY-02), and Rep.
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House Democrats add eight seats to midterm target map month before election day
The article reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added eight target districts to its midterm map, aiming to flip seats currently held by Republicans or an open seat.
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About The Philadelphia Inquirer Editorial Board’s Endorsements
The Philadelphia Inquirer piece discusses whether a large Democratic wave in New Jersey could defeat Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) in NJ-02.
Philadelphia Inquirer
Drew
No story this week names this candidate.
Jeff Van Drew, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJeff Van Drew | 83.3% | 83.5% | 83.0% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| DZack Mullock | 16.1% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 1.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Jeff Van Drew
Republican U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district (since 2019)
Jeff Van Drew, a Republican who has represented New Jersey's 2nd congressional district since 2019 after switching from the Democratic Party, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Zack Mullock, the mayor of Cape May.
Zack Mullock
Democratic Mayor of Cape May (since 2021)
Zack Mullock, a Democrat who has served as mayor of Cape May since 2021, is his party's nominee for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Jeff Van Drew.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi10.7K contracts
New Jersey's 2nd District margin of victory
| Drew, 3+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Drew, 6+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Drew, 9+ pts | 40.0% | |
| Drew, 12+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Drew, 15+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Drew, 18+ pts | 9.1% | |
| Drew, 21+ pts | 3.9% |
Polymarket$11.2K traded
NJ-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 4.9% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 2.6% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 22.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 18.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 8.3% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 4.9% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 5.1% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$38.6K traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeff Van Drew: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $28.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi40.6K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeff Van Drew: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 84.0% · $26.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jeff Van Drew
If the House member sworn in for NJ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
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