nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

North Carolina Senate 2026

95.4% DRoy Cooper leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
95.3%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for North Carolina Senate.

  1. GOP Senate Campaign Goes Dark During Home Stretch

    Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley has no television ads currently booked for the final weeks of North Carolina’s Senate race, as his campaign faces a widening polling gap against Democrat Roy Cooper and…

    The Daily WireWhatley
  2. Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley face off for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat

    NORTH CAROLINA, USA: With North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat drawing national attention ahead of the midterm elections, Democrat Roy Cooper and

    WVECWhatley
  3. NC Republicans Tillis, Moore prepare for GOP losses in upcoming election

    “The election’s in 19 days,” Tillis said. “Twenty days from now, I’ll be reaching out to Republicans who aren’t crazy and try to figure out how we can recover from what I think are almost certain losses this election…

    NC NewslineWhatley
  4. Barack Obama endorses Roy Cooper for North Carolina's Senate seat

    NORTH CAROLINA (QUEEN CITY NEWS): Roy Cooper landed a major, but not unexpected, endorsement Wednesday.

    WSPACooperAlso in Queen City News
  5. Licensable picture: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Roy Cooper votes in North Carolina

    Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate seat, inserts his ballot into a tabulator on the first day of early

    ReutersCooper
More coverage 11
  1. 2026 Voter Guide: Education items on the ballot in North Carolina

    During his last year of his final term as governor, Cooper proclaimed 2024 the “Year of Public Schools.” He frequently visited public schools during his time as governor.

    ednc.orgWhatley
  2. NC voters not thrilled with Helene response, WRAL/WSOC Poll shows. How Cooper, Whatley were involved :: WRAL.com

    It also has implications for the state’s 2026 U.S. Senate race: not only because Congress could vote to give North Carolina more money, but also because the leading candidates for the seat have held leadership roles…

    wral.comWhatley
  3. In a new ad, former President Obama throws support behind NC’s Roy Cooper | The East Carolinian

    WASHINGTON: Former President Barack Obama is the latest Democrat to throw his support behind former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

    piratemedia1.comCooper
  4. Democrat Roy Cooper Took Man Who Raped, Killed Elderly Woman Off Death Row

    Soft-on-crime North Carolina Democrat Senate candidate Roy Cooper commuted the death sentence of a man who broke into the home of a 72-year-old woman and

    breitbart.comCooper
  5. Whatley Pauses TV Ads in North Carolina Senate Race

    Michael Whatley's Senate campaign is temporarily not on the airwaves in North Carolina.Whatley, the Republican nominee, does not have future linear

    newsmax.comSocial postWhatley
  6. Whatley Faces North Carolina Senate Ad Gap as Race Tightens

    Republican US Senate nominee Michael Whatley has run out of remaining television ad reservations in North Carolina as the 2026 midterm race moves into its final stretch, according to AdImpact data.

    suaragarut.idWhatley
  7. Michael Whatley Goes Dark In North Carolina

    Republican North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley had no future linear advertisement booked in the state as of Wednesday.

    Daily CallerWhatleyRicketts
  8. Roy Cooper Campaigns for Senate at Greensboro’s Back Table

    Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper shakes hands with North Carolina A&T senior Beryonne Harper as he campaigns at the Back Table in Greensboro, N.C., on Wednesday, October 14, 2026.

    Greensboro News and RecordCooper
  9. Whatley campaign has no future TV ads reserved in NC Senate race; says it is only temporary

    RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN): The campaign for Republican nominee Michael Whatley in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race has no future television advertisements

    WNCNWhatley
  10. Update: Trump to hold rally in Greenville; Whatley will appear | News

    President Donald Trump will visit Greenville on Tuesday in the midst of early voting to campaign for North Carolina Republicans in the midterm election, the Republican National Committee announced.

    Greenville ReflectorWhatley
  11. Early voting in North Carolina begins soon: Here's what to know

    Early voting in North Carolina runs from Thursday, Oct. 15, to Saturday, Oct. 31. Here's what you need to know before casting your ballot.

    WLOS (ABC13News)Cooper

Roy Cooper, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DRoy Cooper 95.4% 96.0% 95.3% 0.6 pts –
RMichael Whatley 4.4% 4.0% 4.4% 0.4 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Michael Whatley

Michael Whatley

Republican

Michael Whatley, a lawyer who chaired the North Carolina Republican Party and then the Republican National Committee, is the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina.

Born 1968 · Michigan
Roy Cooper

Roy Cooper

Democratic

Roy Cooper, a Democrat who led North Carolina as governor between 2017 and 2025 and was attorney general before that, is his party's 2026 nominee for U.S. Senate.

Born 1957 · Nashville, North Carolina

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi17.3K contracts

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

Whatley, 1+ pts
3.9%
Whatley, 3+ pts
2.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi66.4K contracts

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

Cooper, 1+ pts
96.2%
Cooper, 3+ pts
92.3%
Cooper, 5+ pts
82.0%
Cooper, 7+ pts
71.5%
Cooper, 9+ pts
55.5%
Cooper, 11+ pts
39.5%
Cooper, 13+ pts
24.5%
Cooper, 15+ pts
12.5%
Cooper, 17+ pts
8.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.8K traded

North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Cooper 18%+
3.4%
Cooper 15-18%
11.3%
Cooper 12-15%
15.3%
Cooper 9-12%
22.5%
Cooper 6-9%
22.5%
Cooper 3-6%
16.5%
Cooper 0-3%
8.0%
Whatley 0-3%
3.6%
Whatley 3-6%
3.4%
Whatley 6%+
0.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$223.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Roy Cooper: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 96.2% · $21.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.3M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Roy Cooper: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 95.5% · $409.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Roy Cooper

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in North Carolina

  1. NC-01 HouseD67%
  2. NC-02 HouseD99%
  3. NC-03 HouseR84%
  4. NC-04 HouseD97%
  5. NC-05 HouseR87%
  6. NC-06 HouseR90%
  7. NC-07 HouseR86%
  8. NC-08 HouseR95%