US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NC-01 House.
Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout: NC-1 rematch. In the first week of early voting, former 2024 opponent Laurie Buckhout challenges Don Davis again in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District as Trump holds a rally in…
BuckhoutLaurie Buckhout held a political rally in New Bern on Thursday, as part of her activities related to NC-01 House campaigning. The article covers the event details and Buckhout’s engagement in the district.
BuckhoutLaurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (NC-01), held a rally in New Bern with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson endorsing her as early voting begins.
BuckhoutRep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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BentzKurdianFocus: Don Davis, the incumbent Democrat in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (NC-01), and his stance on healthcare policy and hospital stability.
Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”
The FDA has approved the use of salt substitutes in a wider range of popular foods, including bread and cheese.
DavisThe article notes that Mikie Sherrill’s midterm strategy includes endorsing a diverse slate of veterans running for Congress, with Don Davis highlighted as a candidate in North Carolina's redrawn districts.
DavisThe Odessa American article discusses Pfluger presenting the USAFA Board of Visitors Semiannual Report ahead of a meeting.
DavisNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDon Davis | 67.2% | 69.0% | 66.5% | 2.5 pts | – | |
| RLaurie Buckhout | 33.0% | 32.0% | 33.5% | 1.5 pts | – |
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Don Davis, a Democrat and former Air Force officer who has represented North Carolina's 1st congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Laurie Buckhout, whom he defeated in 2024.
Laurie Buckhout, a Republican and retired Army colonel who served as acting assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy in 2025, faces Democratic incumbent Don Davis for North Carolina's 1st congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
North Carolina's 1st District margin of victory
| Buckhout, 2+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Buckhout, 5+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Buckhout, 8+ pts | 8.7% | |
| Buckhout, 11+ pts | 8.0% | |
| Buckhout, 14+ pts | 5.9% implied |
North Carolina's 1st District margin of victory
| Davis, 1+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Davis, 4+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Davis, 7+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Davis, 10+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Davis, 13+ pts | 11.8% |
NC-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 5.3% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 5.2% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 4.1% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 25.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Don Davis: Counted · bid 68.0% / ask 70.0% · $10.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Don Davis: Counted · bid 66.0% / ask 67.0% · $29.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Don Davis
If the House member sworn in for NC-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
