nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NC-06 House 2026

90.5% RAddison McDowell leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
90.5%
Kalshi
90.4%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-06 House.

  1. Guilford County, Greensboro, High Point Announce  C-PACE Financing Program - EIN Presswire

    The press release announces Guilford County and the cities of Greensboro and High Point unveiling a C-PACE (Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy) financing program.

    einnews.comJefferson
  2. Guilford County, Greensboro, High Point Announce  C-PACE Financing Program

    The City of High Point (in Guilford County) announced a C-PACE financing program to support commercial and industrial expansions and building improvements.

    EIN PresswireJefferson
  3. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  4. Could there be upsets in Charlotte congressional races?

    Alma Adams (D) is the incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina’s 12th District (Charlotte-centered). In 2024 she won reelection with about 74% of the vote.

    Charlotte ObserverAdamsMcDowell

Addison McDowell, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAddison McDowell 90.5% 90.5% 90.4% 0.1 pts –
DCyril Jefferson 9.5% 9.5% 9.3% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Addison McDowell

Addison McDowell

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district (since 2025)

Addison McDowell, a Republican who has represented North Carolina's 6th congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Cyril Jefferson, the mayor of High Point.

Born 1994

Cyril Jefferson

Democratic Mayor of High Point

Cyril Jefferson, the Democratic mayor of High Point, is his party's nominee for North Carolina's 6th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Addison McDowell.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.0K contracts

North Carolina's 6th District margin of victory

McDowell, 2+ pts
87.9%
McDowell, 5+ pts
77.0%
McDowell, 8+ pts
62.5%
McDowell, 11+ pts
43.5%
McDowell, 14+ pts
26.5%
McDowell, 17+ pts
20.0%
McDowell, 20+ pts
15.5%
McDowell, 23+ pts
10.0%
McDowell, 26+ pts
5.2%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.8K traded

NC-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
7.3%
Republican 15-18%
10.5%
Republican 12-15%
20.5%
Republican 9-12%
18.6%
Republican 6-9%
17.5%
Republican 3-6%
15.0%
Republican 0-3%
6.7%
Democrat 0-3%
7.0%
Democrat 3-6%
4.0%
Democrat 6%+
1.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$60.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Addison McDowell: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 91.0% · $6.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Addison McDowell: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 91.8% · $1.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Addison McDowell

If the House member sworn in for NC-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in North Carolina

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  5. NC-04 HouseD97%
  6. NC-05 HouseR87%
  7. NC-07 HouseR86%
  8. NC-08 HouseR95%