House · 3 November 2026

NC-14 House 2026

89.7% RTim Moore leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 91.0%
Kalshi: 89.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-14 House.

2 stories this week

Top story

Womack served summons in felony case at Polk County rally

Newly served court papers put the candidate’s account of an unresolved 2019 incident before voters as early voting begins.

anniedance.substack.com21h agoWomack

Yesterday
Congressional candidate served with felony summons at Polk rally
Womack, the Democratic nominee challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Moore in North Carolina’s 14th Congressional District, was attending the Polk County Democratic Party’s Fall Rally when a Polk County sheriff’s deputy…

Tryon Daily Bulletin22h agoWomack

Tim Moore, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTim Moore	89.7%		91.0%	89.5%	1.5 pts	–
DLakesha Womack	9.2%		9.0%	9.3%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-14/embed.html" title="NC-14 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-14/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-14">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-14/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-14"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-14/card-landscape.png" alt="NC-14 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Lakesha Womack

Democratic

Lakesha Womack, a business consultant, is the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 14th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Tim Moore in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Tim Moore

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 14th congressional district (since 2025)

Tim Moore, a Republican who served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2015 to 2025 and has represented the 14th congressional district since 2025, faces Democrat Lakesha Womack in 2026.

Born 1970 · Kings Mountain, North Carolina

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi767 contracts

North Carolina's 14th District margin of victory

Moore, 1+ pts		84.5%
Moore, 4+ pts		72.5%
Moore, 7+ pts		60.5%
Moore, 10+ pts		45.5%
Moore, 13+ pts		30.5%
Moore, 16+ pts		17.5%
Moore, 19+ pts		10.7%
Moore, 22+ pts		5.5%
Moore, 25+ pts		7.0% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.6K traded

NC-14 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+		3.9%
Republican 20-25%		1.4%
Republican 15-20%		20.5%
Republican 10-15%		18.5%
Republican 5-10%		30.5%
Republican 0-5%		20.5%
Democrat 0-5%		3.6%
Democrat 5%+		1.9%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tim Moore: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 92.0% · $4.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.5K contracts traded