House · 3 November 2026

NC-05 House 2026

86.9% RVirginia Foxx leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 86.5%
Kalshi: 89.0%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-05 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Profiling U.S. House candidates

The article is the first in a candidate profile series by Capital Tonight focusing on the open U.S. House seat in North Carolina after Rep. Chuck Edwards did not seek re-election.

Spectrum Local NewsYesterdayCodiga Hubbard

Wednesday, Oct 14
NC House District 105: Republican Tricia Cotham, Democrat Ken McCool
Topic: NC House District 105 race between Republican Tricia Cotham (incumbent) and Democrat Ken McCool.

WCNCYesterdayCodiga Hubbard
Know your candidate: Jennifer Balkcom for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District
The article is about Jennifer Balkcom, the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District.

WLOS (ABC13News)YesterdayHubbard Harden
The Political Beat Candidate Guide: North Carolina House District 73
The Political Beat Candidate Guide covers North Carolina State House District 73 (Cabarrus County, including Concord).

WSOCYesterdayHubbard
The Political Beat Candidate Guide: U.S. House of Representatives District 5
This WSOC TV candidate guide covers North Carolina’s 5th congressional district, which includes Alexander, Caldwell, Watauga, and Ashe counties.

WSOCYesterdayHubbard Sneed

Virginia Foxx, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RVirginia Foxx	86.9%		86.5%	89.0%	2.5 pts	–
DChuck Hubbard	11.2%		11.1%	11.5%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-05/embed.html" title="NC-05 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-05/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-05">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Chuck Hubbard

Democratic

Chuck Hubbard, a retired newspaper reporter and the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 5th congressional district in 2024, is again his party's nominee in 2026 against Republican incumbent Virginia Foxx.

Full candidate profile →

Virginia Foxx

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 5th congressional district (since 2005)

Virginia Foxx, a Republican who has represented North Carolina's 5th congressional district since 2005 and chairs the House Rules Committee, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Chuck Hubbard, a retired newspaper reporter.

Born 1943 · Manhattan, New York City

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi156 contracts

North Carolina's 5th District margin of victory

Foxx, 3+ pts		83.5%
Foxx, 6+ pts		69.5%
Foxx, 9+ pts		53.0%
Foxx, 12+ pts		39.0%
Foxx, 15+ pts		24.0%
Foxx, 18+ pts		9.7%
Foxx, 21+ pts		7.0%
Foxx, 24+ pts		4.5%
Foxx, 27+ pts		6.0% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.8K traded

NC-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+		4.3%
Republican 18-21%		3.4%
Republican 15-18%		3.5%
Republican 12-15%		15.8%
Republican 9-12%		22.5%
Republican 6-9%		21.5%
Republican 3-6%		10.0%
Republican 0-3%		5.8%
Democrat 0-3%		5.9%
Democrat 3%+		4.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Virginia Foxx: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $6.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.9K contracts traded