North Carolina 2026 Elections: Senate, Governor and House Odds

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NC-01 House DDon Davis	DDon Davis	Lean D	67.1%	69.0%	66.5%	2.5 pts	+0.1	+2.6	181.4K
NC-11 House DJamie Ager	DJamie Ager	Likely D	77.2%	75.5%	77.5%	2.0 pts	−0.6	+2.2	257.4K
NC-09 House RRichard Hudson	RRichard Hudson	Likely R	82.3%	81.5%	83.0%	1.5 pts	−0.2	+1.0	60.5K
NC-03 House RGreg Murphy	RGreg Murphy	Likely R	84.3%	83.5%	84.5%	1.0 pts	−0.3	+2.0	36.4K
NC-07 House RDavid Rouzer	RDavid Rouzer	Likely R	86.4%	86.0%	86.5%	1.0 pts	−0.1	−0.3	39.2K
NC-05 House RVirginia Foxx	RVirginia Foxx	Likely R	86.8%	86.5%	88.5%	2.0 pts	−0.1	+1.1	51.9K
NC-13 House RBrad Knott	RBrad Knott	Likely R	87.5%	87.5%	87.5%	0.5 pts	+0.2	+3.2	15.1K
NC-14 House RTim Moore	RTim Moore	Likely R	89.6%	90.5%	89.5%	1.0 pts	0.0	+2.9	43.1K
NC-06 House RAddison McDowell	RAddison McDowell	Safe R	90.5%	90.5%	90.4%	0.3 pts	−0.1	−0.1	68.9K
NC-10 House RPat Harrigan	RPat Harrigan	Safe R	95.2%	95.1%	95.4%	0.8 pts	+1.0	+1.1	16.2K
NC-08 House RMark Harris	RMark Harris	Safe R	95.5%	95.4%	95.9%	0.5 pts	+0.7	−1.5	66.1K
NC-04 House DValerie Foushee	DValerie Foushee	Safe D	97.4%	97.3%	97.6%	0.3 pts	+0.3	+0.2	84.8K
NC-12 House DAlma Adams	DAlma Adams	Safe D	97.5%	97.4%	97.5%	0.2 pts	0.0	+1.3	69.2K
NC-02 House DDeborah Ross	DDeborah Ross	Safe D	98.6%	98.8%	98.5%	0.4 pts	−0.2	+0.7	36.2K

House seats Democrats win in North Carolina

Each venue's market, shown on its own.

Kalshi33.8K contracts

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

Below 3		1.0% implied
3		12.0%
4		22.5%
5		43.5%
6		15.5%
7		7.5%
Above 7		8.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.3K traded

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

<3		1.0%
3		12.5%
4		19.5%
5		44.0%
6+		20.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Political landscape in North Carolina

Overview

North Carolina is a Southeastern state on the South Atlantic coast. Virginia borders it on the north, South Carolina on the south, Georgia on the southwest and Tennessee on the west, with the Atlantic Ocean along its eastern shore; together with South Carolina it forms the Carolinas region. It ranks 28th in area and ninth in population, and the 2020 census counted about 10.4 million residents. Raleigh is the capital, and Charlotte is the largest city and a fast-growing one. The Charlotte metropolitan area, with nearly 2.9 million people, is the largest in the state and, after New York City, the country's biggest banking center. The Research Triangle, the state's second-most populous combined area at about 2.4 million people, contains Research Triangle Park, the country's largest research park. North Carolina was admitted to the Union on November 21, 1789, as the 12th state.

Officeholders

As of October 2026, the governor of North Carolina is Josh Stein (Democratic), and the state's US senators are Thom Tillis (Republican) and Ted Budd (Republican).

2026 elections

On November 3, 2026, voters in North Carolina will decide the race for a US Senate seat, contests in 14 US House districts and 3 ballot measures. The three amendments concern voter identification, a cap on the income tax rate and a limit on property tax levies.

Ballot measures

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	Volume
North Carolina: Income Tax Rate Cap Amendment Yes	Yes	Likely Yes	80.0% Kalshi only	–	80.0%	–	203
North Carolina: Property Tax Levy Limit Amendment Yes	Yes	Likely Yes	81.5% Kalshi only	–	81.5%	–	495
North Carolina: Voter Identification Amendment Yes	Yes	Likely Yes	83.0% Kalshi only	–	83.0%	–	0

North Carolina 2026 elections

Current officeholders

Statewide races

House