House · 3 November 2026

NC-09 House 2026

82.2% RRichard Hudson leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 81.5%
Kalshi: 83.0%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Richard Hudson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRichard Hudson	82.2%		81.5%	83.0%	1.5 pts	–
DRichard Ojeda	17.3%		17.5%	17.0%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Richard Hudson

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 9th congressional district (since 2013)

Richard Hudson, a Republican who has represented North Carolina in the U.S. House since 2013, is seeking re-election in the 9th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Richard Ojeda, a former West Virginia state senator.

Born 1971 · Franklin, Virginia

Full candidate profile →

Richard Ojeda

Democratic

Richard Ojeda, a Democrat and retired U.S. Army major who served in the West Virginia Senate from 2017 to 2019, is challenging Republican incumbent Richard Hudson for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2026.

Rochester, Minnesota

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi152 contracts

North Carolina's 9th District margin of victory

Hudson, 1+ pts		76.5%
Hudson, 3+ pts		65.5%
Hudson, 6+ pts		51.5%
Hudson, 9+ pts		36.5%
Hudson, 12+ pts		23.5%
Hudson, 15+ pts		11.4%
Hudson, 18+ pts		6.5%
Hudson, 21+ pts		7.5% implied
Hudson, 24+ pts		5.7% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.1K traded

NC-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		3.3%
Republican 15-18%		8.2%
Republican 12-15%		–
Republican 9-12%		2.8%
Republican 6-9%		21.0%
Republican 3-6%		12.5%
Republican 0-3%		18.5%
Democrat 0-3%		17.5%
Democrat 3-6%		10.1%
Democrat 6%+		4.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Richard Hudson: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 82.0% · $29.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi29.7K contracts traded