House · 3 November 2026

NC-07 House 2026

86.5% RDavid Rouzer leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 86.0%
Kalshi: 86.5%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-07 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

Yesterday
Congressman Rouzer to Host Badges of Honor Event for Veterans in NC-07
Congressman David Rouzer (NC-07) announced a Badges of Honor event for veterans in North Carolina’s 7th Congressional District.

rouzer.house.govOfficialYesterdayRouzer
David Rouzer | | newsargus.com
David Rouzer is the Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina’s 7th Congressional District (NC-07), serving since 2014.

Goldsboro News ArgusYesterdayRouzer
Wednesday, Oct 14
Industry stakeholders are urged to prepare for potential Congressional power shift in 2027
The article notes that U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, has signaled that if he becomes chairman, he would focus investigations into alleged self-enrichment and…

supplychain247.comYesterdayRaskin Rouzer
Port Of Wilmington Awarded $6 Million Federal Grant
Topic: U.S. Congressman David Rouzer (NC-07) discusses a $6 million federal grant awarded to the Port of Wilmington.

jocoreport.comYesterdayRouzer

David Rouzer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RDavid Rouzer	86.5%		86.0%	86.5%	0.5 pts	–
DKimberly Hardy	13.7%		14.5%	13.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-07">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

David Rouzer

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 7th congressional district (since 2015)

David Rouzer, a Republican who has represented North Carolina's 7th congressional district since 2015, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Kimberly Hardy, an assistant professor, and Libertarian Maad Abu-Ghazalah.

Born 1972 · Landstuhl, West Germany

Full candidate profile →

Kimberly Hardy

Democratic

Kimberly Hardy is a Democratic candidate for the US House in North Carolina's 7th congressional district (NC-07) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi256 contracts

North Carolina's 7th District margin of victory

Rouzer, 1+ pts		82.5%
Rouzer, 3+ pts		72.5%
Rouzer, 6+ pts		57.0% implied
Rouzer, 9+ pts		43.0%
Rouzer, 12+ pts		28.5%
Rouzer, 15+ pts		14.0% implied
Rouzer, 18+ pts		8.8%
Rouzer, 21+ pts		4.5%
Rouzer, 24+ pts		5.9% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.1K traded

NC-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		3.4%
Republican 15-18%		4.2%
Republican 12-15%		14.0%
Republican 9-12%		–
Republican 6-9%		17.5%
Republican 3-6%		22.2%
Republican 0-3%		19.5%
Democrat 0-3%		5.4%
Democrat 3-6%		4.5%
Democrat 6%+		2.1%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

David Rouzer: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 87.0% · $2.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.5K contracts traded