House · 3 November 2026

NC-03 House 2026

84.2% RGreg Murphy leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 83.5%
Kalshi: 84.5%
Spread: 2.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-03 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Oct. 16, 2026: National Advocacy Update

Topic: National Advocacy Update (Oct. 16, 2026) from the American Medical Association.

American Medical Association (AMA)17h ago

Schrier

Joyce

Murphy

Today
NC voters indicted for falsely claiming citizenship
The article profiles U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC-03), a Greenville urologist and former ECU Health-affiliated physician, focusing on potential conflicts of interest as he seeks reelection.

Charlotte Observer8h agoMurphy
Yesterday
Decision 2026: Third Congressional District candidates discuss healthcare
Topic: 2026 debate on healthcare for North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District featuring Republican Rep. Greg Murphy.

WITN News21h agoMurphy
Wednesday, Oct 14
New Legislation Offers Hope to Urological / Ostomy Providers
The article reports that U.S. Representatives Greg Murphy (R-NC, NC-03) and Brad Schneider (D-IL) introduced bipartisan legislation to pause for five years the inclusion of ostomy and urological supplies in the DMEPOS…

medtrade.comYesterdayMurphy
NC congressman has ties to health system he's promoting. Are they disclosed? | News & Features
Murphy helped secure funding and facilitated Ways and Means Committee visits to ECU Health facilities.

ArcaMaxYesterdayMurphy

Greg Murphy, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RGreg Murphy	84.2%		83.5%	84.5%	1.0 pts	–
DRaymond Smith Jr.	15.1%		16.5%	14.5%	2.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-03/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-03">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Greg Murphy

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district (since 2019)

Greg Murphy, a Republican urologist who has represented North Carolina's 3rd congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., a former state representative.

Born 1963 · Tarrytown, New York

Full candidate profile →

Raymond Smith Jr.

Democratic

Raymond Smith Jr., a Democrat and Army veteran who represented the 21st district in the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2019 to 2023, faces Republican incumbent Greg Murphy for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory

Murphy, 3+ pts		71.5%
Murphy, 6+ pts		59.0%
Murphy, 9+ pts		44.5%
Murphy, 12+ pts		31.5%
Murphy, 15+ pts		19.5%
Murphy, 18+ pts		10.9%
Murphy, 21+ pts		5.5%
Murphy, 24+ pts		3.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.2K traded

NC-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		12.5%
Republican 15-18%		5.4%
Republican 12-15%		5.0%
Republican 9-12%		18.0%
Republican 6-9%		19.5%
Republican 3-6%		20.0%
Republican 0-3%		11.8%
Democrat 0-3%		5.9%
Democrat 3-6%		6.6%
Democrat 6%+		1.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Greg Murphy: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $11.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi9.3K contracts traded