House · 3 November 2026

NC-13 House 2026

87.5% RBrad Knott leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 87.5%
Kalshi: 87.5%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NC-13 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

Top Republicans Sign VP Vance's Pledge to Protect Americans From Fraud

Several members of the Republican Study Committee (RSC) have already done so, signing the Vice President's Pledge to Protect Americans from Fraud.

townhall.comYesterday

Pfluger Decio

Knott

Yesterday
ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

asbarez.com21h agoMcBath Beatty Harder Morelle Joyce Neguse Hayes Solis Conaway Reschenthaler Bilirakis Thompson Cisneros Whitesides Latimer Palmer Amo Lucas Burlison Valadao Rouzer Joyce Strong Westerman Pettersen Mast Jack Boyle Sherman Knott Wagner Mejia Adams McDowell Bean Correa Underwood Castor Jackson Wilson Himes Jeffries Davis Tran Bentz Kurdian
Wednesday, Oct 14
House Democrats add eight seats to midterm target map month before election day
The article reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added eight target districts to its midterm map, aiming to flip seats currently held by Republicans or an open seat.

JingletreeYesterdayDrew Mele Schmidt Knott

Brad Knott, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBrad Knott	87.5%		87.5%	87.5%	0.0 pts	–
DPaul Barringer	12.1%		12.5%	11.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nc-13/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nc-13">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Brad Knott

Republican U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district (since 2025)

Brad Knott, a Republican former federal prosecutor who has represented North Carolina's 13th congressional district since 2025, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Paul Barringer, an attorney and healthcare consultant.

Born 1986 · Raleigh, North Carolina

Full candidate profile →

Paul Barringer

Democratic

Paul Barringer, an attorney and healthcare consultant, is the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 13th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Brad Knott in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi464 contracts

North Carolina's 13th District margin of victory

Knott, 3+ pts		77.5%
Knott, 6+ pts		65.5%
Knott, 9+ pts		52.5%
Knott, 12+ pts		38.5%
Knott, 15+ pts		25.5%
Knott, 18+ pts		15.5%
Knott, 21+ pts		7.8%
Knott, 24+ pts		4.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.3K traded

NC-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+		3.6%
Republican 20-25%		4.6%
Republican 15-20%		2.3%
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 5-10%		24.5%
Republican 0-5%		22.5%
Democrat 0-5%		–
Democrat 5%+		2.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$9.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Knott: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 89.0% · $17.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.2K contracts traded