nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Virginia Senate 2026

97.8% DMark Warner leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
98.0%
Kalshi
97.7%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Virginia Senate.

Top story

Cowardly Democrats duck candidate debates

Two weeks ago on this page, we chastised Sen. Mark R. Warner, Virginia Democrat, for his unwillingness to agree to debate his Republican challenger in his

Washington TimesWarner
  1. Republican speakers decry "socialist barbarians" at Rockingham fundraiser

    Other speakers included former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares; Mizusawa, who is challenging Democrat Mark Warner for the Senate seat; as well as Cline, who is running against Democrat Beth Macy for the 6th…

    wvtf.orgWarner
  2. Trump’s Attacks on Voting Raise Fears He Will Try to Challenge Midterm Results

    The result, election officials fear, could be an effort by administration officials to try to contest results that do not favor Republicans by citing their own findings that the vote is tainted.

    New York TimesWarner
  3. Virginia Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Leaders Today

    The table below shows the leading candidate in each race, the current odds on Kalshi and whether they are an incumbent.

    ForbesWarner
  4. Tracking the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in 2026

    The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.

    Yahoo NewsWessBookerBookerMizusawaMcKayAndersonThomasMurphyRischMarkerMooreByrdHagemanRothBeaudion
  5. Luria Edges Kiggans in Hampton Roads Poll, but Not by Blue-Wave Margin

    A Christopher Newport University Wason Center poll shows Democrat Elaine Luria leading Republican Jen Kiggans 46% to 43 in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, with a 4-point margin of error.

    theroanokestar.comLuriaMizusawa
More coverage 9
  1. Several featured speakers in attendance at GOP “Oysters with Obenshain”

    The Rocktown Now article covers a GOP event “Oysters with Obenshain” featuring U.S. Rep. Ben Cline, Senate candidate Bert Mizusawa, and former Attorney General Jason Miyares.

    rocktownnow.comMacyClineMizusawa
  2. New poll: In Virginia’s 2nd District, Luria leads Kiggans by 3 points

    Bert Mizusawa is a Republican challenger in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race. In the district-level poll cited, Democrat Mark Warner leads Mizusawa 51% to 37% among likely voters in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District,…

    whro.orgMizusawaWarnerAlso in Virginia Mercury
  3. Voter Guide For Prince William County: What's On The Ballot, Early Voting & More

    Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Warner is seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. He faces Republican Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won the Republican nomination in the Aug. 4 primary.

    PatchWarner
  4. Voter Guide For Alexandria: What's On The Ballot, Voting & More

    ALEXANDRIA, VA: Alexandria voters will choose their representatives for the U.S. House and Senate in the Nov. 3 general election and decide on three proposed amendments to the Virginia Constitution.

    PatchWarner
  5. Warner seeks a final term as Mizusawa makes his case for change

    U.S. Sen. Mark Warner says he wants one final term to help undo the damage he believes President Donald Trump has caused.

    fredericksburgfreepress.comWarnerAlso in royalexaminer.com
  6. Poll: Elaine Luria has three-point lead over Jen Kiggans in the Second District

    A poll indicates incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner leads Republican Bert Mizusawa 51% to 37% in Virginia. The article title references a separate polling result in the Second District (Elaine Luria vs.

    augustafreepress.comMizusawa
  7. Warner seeks a final term as Mizusawa makes his case for change | Elections

    The article reports on the U.S. Senate race in Virginia between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa.

    Loudoun Times-MirrorMizusawa
  8. Luria leads Kiggans in new poll

    Bert Mizusawa trails in Virginia Senate polling. The latest survey shows Democrat Mark Warner leading Mizusawa 51% to 37% with 11% undecided.

    virginiascope.comMizusawa
  9. No stage, no show: Virginia voters left in the dark as candidates skip debates this cycle

    Bert Mizusawa criticizes Virginia Senate incumbent Mark Warner for not participating in formal debates, calling Warner’s stance a disservice to constituents and labeling him a “coward” for avoiding face-to-face…

    WVECMizusawa

Mark Warner, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DMark Warner 97.8% 98.0% 97.7% 0.3 pts –
RBert Mizusawa 2.6% 2.2% 2.7% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/virginia/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-virginia">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Bert Mizusawa

Bert Mizusawa

Republican

Bert Mizusawa, a retired U.S. Army major general, attorney and former Senate and Pentagon official, is the Republican nominee challenging Democratic senator Mark Warner in Virginia in 2026.

Born 1957 · Honolulu, Hawaii
Mark Warner

Mark Warner

Democratic United States Senator from Virginia (since 2009)

Mark Warner, a Democrat who governed Virginia from 2002 to 2006 and has served in the US Senate since 2009, faces Republican Bert Mizusawa in 2026.

Born 1954 · Indianapolis, Indiana

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.6K contracts

Virginia Senate margin of victory

Warner, 7+ pts
94.8%
Warner, 9+ pts
92.3%
Warner, 11+ pts
88.2%
Warner, 13+ pts
82.5%
Warner, 15+ pts
75.5%
Warner, 17+ pts
67.0%
Warner, 19+ pts
58.5%
Warner, 21+ pts
43.5%
Warner, 23+ pts
37.5%
Warner, 25+ pts
30.0%
Warner, 27+ pts
20.5%
Warner, 29+ pts
14.5%
Warner, 31+ pts
9.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.6K traded

Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 3%+
0.4%
Republican 0-3%
2.5%
Democrat 0-3%
2.7%
Democrat 3-6%
–
Democrat 6-9%
1.6%
Democrat 9-12%
3.1%
Democrat 12-15%
11.5%
Democrat 15-18%
–
Democrat 18-21%
16.8%
Democrat 21%+
42.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$23.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Warner: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 98.8% · $4.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi35.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Warner: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 98.0% · $25.6K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Mark Warner

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Virginia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Virginia

  1. VA-01 HouseD56%
  2. VA-02 HouseD87%
  3. VA-03 HouseD97%
  4. VA-04 HouseD98%
  5. VA-05 HouseR72%
  6. VA-06 HouseR93%
  7. VA-07 HouseD97%
  8. VA-08 HouseD96%