nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

FL-13 House 2026

74.1% RAnna Paulina Luna leads TruthIndex™Lean R
Polymarket
73.5%
Kalshi
74.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-13 House.

  1. With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Republican seats with veterans’ help

    The Anchorage Daily News story profiles Colorado’s 5th Congressional District race, where Democratic veteran-backed candidate Jessica Killin is challenging incumbent Republican Jeff Crank in a conservative-leaning seat…

    Anchorage Daily NewsGrayKillinCrankAlso in Newser
  2. With anger over Iran war, Democrats hope veterans help flip seats

    In Florida’s 13th Congressional District, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Leela Gray is challenging Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

    Boston HeraldLuna
  3. Trump demanded, DeSantis delivered but redistricted races toss-ups

    Three of the seats, Florida congressional districts 14, 22 and 25, are rated as up for grabs, Cook Political's Covey said.

    miramarflnews.comMoskowitzLuna
  4. Will a Nobel solve the world’s Trump problem? The president thinks so, By Azu Ishiekwene

    Who nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize? The Nobel Committee reportedly keeps lists of nominees and nominators confidential. It neither confirms nor denies claims during the period.

    Premium TimesLuna
  5. MAHA PAC and MAHA Action PAC announce Make Iowa Healthy Again Rally & Commits over $1.9 Million to Elect Zach Lahn and support Six House Candidates in Midterm Push and a Ground Game

    Brandon Herrera (TX-23), health-freedom champion pressing for food-supply transparency and the restoration of informed consent.

    PR NewswireHerreraLunaYarbrough
More coverage 3
  1. How could the midterm elections hurt Trump and do they matter for Ukraine?

    The House of Representatives is most likely to come under Democratic control. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority: 218 seats, plus one independent who votes with the Republicans, compared with 214 seats held by…

    European PravdaLuna
  2. Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

    Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

    insidepoliticalmoney.comJamesGrayBuckhoutCammackCiscomaniCrankConroyOrdenFleischmannHinesSteil
  3. With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Republican seats with veterans' help | National

    Jessica Killin is challenging longtime Republican Rep. Jeff Crank in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District (CO-05).

    Greenville ReflectorGrayKillin

Anna Paulina Luna, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAnna Paulina Luna 74.1% 73.5% 74.5% 1.0 pts –
DLeela Gray 26.1% 26.5% 25.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Anna Paulina Luna

Anna Paulina Luna

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 13th congressional district (since 2023)

Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican and Air Force veteran who has represented Florida's 13th congressional district since 2023, seeks a third term in 2026 against Democrat Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general.

Born 1989 · Santa Ana, California

Leela Gray

Democratic

Leela Gray, a Democrat and retired U.S. Army brigadier general, is her party's nominee for Florida's 13th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna in the November 3 general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

Florida's 13th District margin of victory

Luna, 1+ pts
68.5%
Luna, 4+ pts
54.0%
Luna, 7+ pts
37.5%
Luna, 10+ pts
26.5%
Luna, 13+ pts
15.5%
Luna, 16+ pts
7.8%
Luna, 19+ pts
4.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi5.1K contracts

Florida's 13th District margin of victory

Gray, 2+ pts
19.5%
Gray, 5+ pts
10.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.8K traded

FL-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
4.2%
Republican 15-18%
3.2%
Republican 12-15%
3.9%
Republican 9-12%
3.1%
Republican 6-9%
16.9%
Republican 3-6%
23.7%
Republican 0-3%
23.3%
Democrat 0-3%
11.5%
Democrat 3-6%
4.0%
Democrat 6%+
4.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$13.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Anna Paulina Luna: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 75.0% · $5.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi47.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Anna Paulina Luna: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $6.7K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Anna Paulina Luna

If the House member sworn in for FL-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Florida

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  7. FL-05 HouseR93%
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