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Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
TX-31 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.0%
- Kalshi
- 95.5%
- Spread
- 0.6 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for TX-31 House.
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A look at House District 94 candidates’ war chests going into early voting
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No story this week names this candidate.
John Carter, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJohn Carter | 95.3% | 95.0% | 95.5% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| DJustin Early | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
John Carter
Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 31st congressional district (since 2003)
John Carter, a Republican who has represented Texas's 31st congressional district since 2003 and previously served as a Williamson County district judge, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Justin Early.
Justin Early
Democratic
Justin Early is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 31st congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent John Carter in a district north of Austin that includes Fort Hood.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi760 contracts
Texas's 31st District margin of victory
| Carter, 2+ pts | 88.3% | |
| Carter, 5+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Carter, 8+ pts | 66.5% | |
| Carter, 11+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Carter, 14+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Carter, 17+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Carter, 20+ pts | 13.5% | |
| Carter, 23+ pts | 6.6% | |
| Carter, 26+ pts | 7.2% implied | |
| Carter, 29+ pts | 5.3% implied |
Polymarket$13.3K traded
TX-31 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.1% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 5.4% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 22.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 32.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 19.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 11.3% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 6.6% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 4.7% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$60.4K traded
Prices which party wins.
John Carter: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi6.4K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
John Carter: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 96.6% · $1.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John Carter
If the House member sworn in for TX-31 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Texas
- Texas SenateD62%
- Texas GovernorR77%
- TX-01 HouseR97%
- TX-02 HouseR93%
- TX-03 HouseR95%
- TX-04 HouseR96%
- TX-05 HouseR98%
- TX-06 HouseR95%