Updated Oct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
3 November 2026

Texas 2026 elections

Texas, the second-largest US state by area and population, holds a US Senate race, a governor's race, 38 US House contests and a local ballot measure on November 3, 2026.

Flag of TexasPaul B. Joiner, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Capital
Austin
Largest city
Houston
Population
31.71M (2025 estimate)
Statehood
28th state (December 29, 1845)

Current officeholders

Governor 2026 Ballot
R Greg Abbott
U.S. Senator Term ends later
R John Cornyn
U.S. Senator Term ends later
R Ted Cruz

House

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
TX-35 House DJohnny Garcia Toss-up 59.5% 59.0% 60.5% 1.5 pts 0.0 +1.0 268.1K
TX-23 House RBrandon Herrera Lean R 69.7% 69.5% 70.5% 2.0 pts −0.1 +7.2 360.8K
TX-15 House DBobby Pulido Likely D 82.6% 82.5% 83.0% 1.0 pts −0.5 +2.1 2.4M
TX-09 House RAlex Mealer Likely R 83.8% 83.5% 84.0% 1.5 pts −0.1 +4.0 66.8K
TX-34 House DVicente Gonzalez Likely D 84.3% 83.5% 84.5% 1.0 pts −0.1 +0.3 92.1K
TX-32 House RJace Yarbrough Likely R 85.9% 85.5% 86.0% 1.1 pts −1.6 −3.1 79.4K
TX-10 House RChris Gober Safe R 91.1% 91.0% 91.5% 0.5 pts −0.4 +0.1 45.5K
TX-28 House DHenry Cuellar Safe D 91.7% 92.0% 91.7% 0.7 pts −0.2 +3.2 245.0K
TX-24 House RBeth Van Duyne Safe R 92.0% 91.5% 93.1% 1.6 pts −1.0 −0.1 100.5K
TX-02 House RSteve Toth Safe R 93.5% 93.5% 93.3% 0.6 pts +0.5 +3.0 32.6K
TX-03 House RKeith Self Safe R 94.6% 94.5% 94.6% 0.8 pts −0.2 −0.9 59.4K
TX-22 House RTrever Nehls Safe R 94.6% 94.5% 94.7% 0.2 pts −0.1 +3.1 46.7K
TX-36 House RBrian Babin Safe R 94.9% 94.5% 95.8% 1.3 pts 0.0 +0.1 54.4K
TX-12 House RCraig Goldman Safe R 94.9% 95.3% 94.8% 0.6 pts −0.3 −0.1 65.3K
TX-06 House RJake Ellzey Safe R 95.0% 95.0% 95.5% 0.6 pts −1.4 −0.3 90.9K
TX-25 House RRoger Williams Safe R 95.2% 95.2% 95.4% 0.2 pts +0.1 −0.4 46.7K
TX-31 House RJohn Carter Safe R 95.3% 95.0% 95.5% 0.6 pts 0.0 +0.2 66.8K
TX-21 House RMark Teixeira Safe R 95.6% 95.3% 95.7% 0.3 pts +0.1 +3.0 81.2K
TX-26 House RBrandon Gill Safe R 95.7% 95.6% 95.9% 0.3 pts +0.3 +0.4 83.5K
TX-33 House DColin Allred Safe D 95.7% 95.5% 97.3% 1.8 pts −1.8 0.0 18.0K
TX-08 House RJessica Hart Steinmann Safe R 95.8% 95.5% 96.6% 1.5 pts +0.4 +0.1 77.6K
TX-27 House RMichael Cloud Safe R 95.8% 95.0% 96.2% 1.2 pts +0.1 +0.9 59.3K
TX-04 House RPat Fallon Safe R 95.9% 95.5% 96.6% 1.1 pts +0.3 +0.4 84.6K
TX-17 House RPete Sessions Safe R 96.0% 95.8% 96.3% 0.5 pts −0.1 +1.5 82.6K
TX-20 House DJoaquin Castro Safe D 96.1% 96.1% 96.5% 0.5 pts −0.2 +0.4 41.1K
TX-07 House DLizzie Fletcher Safe D 96.2% 96.0% 96.4% 0.4 pts −0.5 0.0 70.7K
TX-19 House RTom Sell Safe R 96.5% 96.5% 96.5% 0.5 pts −1.8 −0.4 37.7K
TX-38 House RJon Bonck Safe R 96.6% 97.0% 96.4% 0.6 pts 0.0 +5.0 40.2K
TX-11 House RAugust Pfluger Safe R 96.6% 96.5% 96.6% 0.5 pts 0.0 +1.7 36.8K
TX-01 House RNathaniel Moran Safe R 96.9% 96.6% 97.1% 0.5 pts −0.7 −0.6 68.5K
TX-13 House RRonny Jackson Safe R 97.1% 97.0% 97.2% 0.2 pts −0.1 +1.1 44.8K
TX-14 House RRandy Weber Safe R 97.2% 97.9% 97.0% 0.9 pts +0.8 +0.8 37.0K
TX-29 House DSylvia Garcia Safe D 97.3% 97.2% 97.4% 0.2 pts −0.3 +0.2 22.0K
TX-30 House DFrederick Haynes III Safe D 97.7% 97.3% 98.6% 1.3 pts +0.5 +1.0 52.7K
TX-16 House DVeronica Escobar Safe D 97.8% 97.6% 98.0% 0.4 pts 0.0 +1.1 27.9K
TX-18 House DChristian Menefee Safe D 97.8% 97.8% 97.8% 0.4 pts −1.0 +0.5 17.9K
TX-37 House DGreg Casar Safe D 97.8% 97.6% 98.0% 1.0 pts −0.4 +0.2 47.5K
TX-05 House RLance Gooden Safe R 97.8% 97.6% 98.0% 0.4 pts +1.0 +0.7 70.4K

House seats Democrats win in Texas

Each venue's market, shown on its own.

Kalshi50.0K contracts

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

Below 8
2.0%
implied
8
3.0%
implied
9
5.9%
10
11.3%
11
21.0%
12
21.0%
13
22.0%
14 and above
15.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.2K traded

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?

<8
0.6%
8
2.3%
9
7.5%
10
12.0%
11
23.0%
12
22.5%
13
19.5%
14+
15.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Political landscape in Texas

Overview

Texas, in the south-central United States, borders New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana; its border with Mexico follows the Rio Grande, and its coast faces the Gulf of Mexico. It ranks second among the states in both area and population, with about 31.7 million people as estimated for 2025. Austin is the capital, Houston is the largest city, and Greater Houston and the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex are the largest metropolitan areas. Spain was the first European power to claim the territory, which became part of Mexico in 1821; settlers then fought the Texas Revolution, whose battles included the Alamo, and in 1836 created the independent Republic of Texas. Texas entered the Union in 1845 as the 28th state, an event that helped trigger the Mexican–American War, and later seceded to join the Confederacy during the Civil War. After a long period of economic stagnation, the state grew substantially in the 20th century. Its diversified economy includes aerospace, technology, energy, manufacturing and agriculture; Texas ranks second in gross state product and has led all states in export revenue since 2002.

Officeholders

As of October 2026, the governor of Texas is Greg Abbott (Republican), and the state's US senators are John Cornyn (Republican) and Ted Cruz (Republican).

2026 elections

On November 3, 2026, voters in Texas will decide the race for a US Senate seat, the race for governor, contests in 38 US House districts and a local ballot measure. The local measure, in League City, concerns police use of Flock cameras.

Ballot measures

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
Texas: League City: police use of Flock cameras (local)
Yes
Yes – 75.5% – – – – 453