Texas 2026 elections
Texas, the second-largest US state by area and population, holds a US Senate race, a governor's race, 38 US House contests and a local ballot measure on November 3, 2026.
- Capital
- Austin
- Largest city
- Houston
- Population
- 31.71M (2025 estimate)
- Statehood
- 28th state (December 29, 1845)
Current officeholders
House
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-35 House | DJohnny Garcia | Toss-up | 59.5% | 59.0% | 60.5% | 1.5 pts | 0.0 | +1.0 | 268.1K | ||
| TX-23 House | RBrandon Herrera | Lean R | 69.7% | 69.5% | 70.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.1 | +7.2 | 360.8K | ||
| TX-15 House | DBobby Pulido | Likely D | 82.6% | 82.5% | 83.0% | 1.0 pts | −0.5 | +2.1 | 2.4M | ||
| TX-09 House | RAlex Mealer | Likely R | 83.8% | 83.5% | 84.0% | 1.5 pts | −0.1 | +4.0 | 66.8K | ||
| TX-34 House | DVicente Gonzalez | Likely D | 84.3% | 83.5% | 84.5% | 1.0 pts | −0.1 | +0.3 | 92.1K | ||
| TX-32 House | RJace Yarbrough | Likely R | 85.9% | 85.5% | 86.0% | 1.1 pts | −1.6 | −3.1 | 79.4K | ||
| TX-10 House | RChris Gober | Safe R | 91.1% | 91.0% | 91.5% | 0.5 pts | −0.4 | +0.1 | 45.5K | ||
| TX-28 House | DHenry Cuellar | Safe D | 91.7% | 92.0% | 91.7% | 0.7 pts | −0.2 | +3.2 | 245.0K | ||
| TX-24 House | RBeth Van Duyne | Safe R | 92.0% | 91.5% | 93.1% | 1.6 pts | −1.0 | −0.1 | 100.5K | ||
| TX-02 House | RSteve Toth | Safe R | 93.5% | 93.5% | 93.3% | 0.6 pts | +0.5 | +3.0 | 32.6K | ||
| TX-03 House | RKeith Self | Safe R | 94.6% | 94.5% | 94.6% | 0.8 pts | −0.2 | −0.9 | 59.4K | ||
| TX-22 House | RTrever Nehls | Safe R | 94.6% | 94.5% | 94.7% | 0.2 pts | −0.1 | +3.1 | 46.7K | ||
| TX-36 House | RBrian Babin | Safe R | 94.9% | 94.5% | 95.8% | 1.3 pts | 0.0 | +0.1 | 54.4K | ||
| TX-12 House | RCraig Goldman | Safe R | 94.9% | 95.3% | 94.8% | 0.6 pts | −0.3 | −0.1 | 65.3K | ||
| TX-06 House | RJake Ellzey | Safe R | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.5% | 0.6 pts | −1.4 | −0.3 | 90.9K | ||
| TX-25 House | RRoger Williams | Safe R | 95.2% | 95.2% | 95.4% | 0.2 pts | +0.1 | −0.4 | 46.7K | ||
| TX-31 House | RJohn Carter | Safe R | 95.3% | 95.0% | 95.5% | 0.6 pts | 0.0 | +0.2 | 66.8K | ||
| TX-21 House | RMark Teixeira | Safe R | 95.6% | 95.3% | 95.7% | 0.3 pts | +0.1 | +3.0 | 81.2K | ||
| TX-26 House | RBrandon Gill | Safe R | 95.7% | 95.6% | 95.9% | 0.3 pts | +0.3 | +0.4 | 83.5K | ||
| TX-33 House | DColin Allred | Safe D | 95.7% | 95.5% | 97.3% | 1.8 pts | −1.8 | 0.0 | 18.0K | ||
| TX-08 House | RJessica Hart Steinmann | Safe R | 95.8% | 95.5% | 96.6% | 1.5 pts | +0.4 | +0.1 | 77.6K | ||
| TX-27 House | RMichael Cloud | Safe R | 95.8% | 95.0% | 96.2% | 1.2 pts | +0.1 | +0.9 | 59.3K | ||
| TX-04 House | RPat Fallon | Safe R | 95.9% | 95.5% | 96.6% | 1.1 pts | +0.3 | +0.4 | 84.6K | ||
| TX-17 House | RPete Sessions | Safe R | 96.0% | 95.8% | 96.3% | 0.5 pts | −0.1 | +1.5 | 82.6K | ||
| TX-20 House | DJoaquin Castro | Safe D | 96.1% | 96.1% | 96.5% | 0.5 pts | −0.2 | +0.4 | 41.1K | ||
| TX-07 House | DLizzie Fletcher | Safe D | 96.2% | 96.0% | 96.4% | 0.4 pts | −0.5 | 0.0 | 70.7K | ||
| TX-19 House | RTom Sell | Safe R | 96.5% | 96.5% | 96.5% | 0.5 pts | −1.8 | −0.4 | 37.7K | ||
| TX-38 House | RJon Bonck | Safe R | 96.6% | 97.0% | 96.4% | 0.6 pts | 0.0 | +5.0 | 40.2K | ||
| TX-11 House | RAugust Pfluger | Safe R | 96.6% | 96.5% | 96.6% | 0.5 pts | 0.0 | +1.7 | 36.8K | ||
| TX-01 House | RNathaniel Moran | Safe R | 96.9% | 96.6% | 97.1% | 0.5 pts | −0.7 | −0.6 | 68.5K | ||
| TX-13 House | RRonny Jackson | Safe R | 97.1% | 97.0% | 97.2% | 0.2 pts | −0.1 | +1.1 | 44.8K | ||
| TX-14 House | RRandy Weber | Safe R | 97.2% | 97.9% | 97.0% | 0.9 pts | +0.8 | +0.8 | 37.0K | ||
| TX-29 House | DSylvia Garcia | Safe D | 97.3% | 97.2% | 97.4% | 0.2 pts | −0.3 | +0.2 | 22.0K | ||
| TX-30 House | DFrederick Haynes III | Safe D | 97.7% | 97.3% | 98.6% | 1.3 pts | +0.5 | +1.0 | 52.7K | ||
| TX-16 House | DVeronica Escobar | Safe D | 97.8% | 97.6% | 98.0% | 0.4 pts | 0.0 | +1.1 | 27.9K | ||
| TX-18 House | DChristian Menefee | Safe D | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.4 pts | −1.0 | +0.5 | 17.9K | ||
| TX-37 House | DGreg Casar | Safe D | 97.8% | 97.6% | 98.0% | 1.0 pts | −0.4 | +0.2 | 47.5K | ||
| TX-05 House | RLance Gooden | Safe R | 97.8% | 97.6% | 98.0% | 0.4 pts | +1.0 | +0.7 | 70.4K |
House seats Democrats win in Texas
Each venue's market, shown on its own.
Kalshi50.0K contracts
How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?
| Below 8 | 2.0% implied | |
| 8 | 3.0% implied | |
| 9 | 5.9% | |
| 10 | 11.3% | |
| 11 | 21.0% | |
| 12 | 21.0% | |
| 13 | 22.0% | |
| 14 and above | 15.0% |
Polymarket$18.2K traded
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
| <8 | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 2.3% | |
| 9 | 7.5% | |
| 10 | 12.0% | |
| 11 | 23.0% | |
| 12 | 22.5% | |
| 13 | 19.5% | |
| 14+ | 15.5% |
Political landscape in Texas
Overview
Texas, in the south-central United States, borders New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana; its border with Mexico follows the Rio Grande, and its coast faces the Gulf of Mexico. It ranks second among the states in both area and population, with about 31.7 million people as estimated for 2025. Austin is the capital, Houston is the largest city, and Greater Houston and the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex are the largest metropolitan areas. Spain was the first European power to claim the territory, which became part of Mexico in 1821; settlers then fought the Texas Revolution, whose battles included the Alamo, and in 1836 created the independent Republic of Texas. Texas entered the Union in 1845 as the 28th state, an event that helped trigger the Mexican–American War, and later seceded to join the Confederacy during the Civil War. After a long period of economic stagnation, the state grew substantially in the 20th century. Its diversified economy includes aerospace, technology, energy, manufacturing and agriculture; Texas ranks second in gross state product and has led all states in export revenue since 2002.
Officeholders
As of October 2026, the governor of Texas is Greg Abbott (Republican), and the state's US senators are John Cornyn (Republican) and Ted Cruz (Republican).
2026 elections
On November 3, 2026, voters in Texas will decide the race for a US Senate seat, the race for governor, contests in 38 US House districts and a local ballot measure. The local measure, in League City, concerns police use of Flock cameras.
Ballot measures
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas: League City: police use of Flock cameras (local) Yes |
Yes | – | 75.5% | – | – | – | – | 453 |