House · 3 November 2026

TX-09 House 2026

83.8% RAlex Mealer leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 83.5%
Kalshi: 84.0%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +4.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-09 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

What's on Harris County's long ballot in 2026?

The provided page covers Harris County’s long ballot for 2026, with a focus on Texas’ 9th Congressional District race.

couriertexas.comYesterdayGutierrez

Yesterday
Multiple polls and other indicators
In Texas’s newly redrawn CD-9, Republican Alex Mealer holds a slim lead over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in UH polling: about 48% to 42% among likely voters, with 10% undecided.

offthekuff.com17h agoGutierrez
Trump’s redistricting war could be a midterms flop for the GOP
Of the five redrawn Texas districts, Cook Political Report rates only District 32 in North Texas solidly Republican and considers at least two targets in South Texas well within reach for Democrats.

Democracy DocketYesterdayMealer

Alex Mealer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RAlex Mealer	83.8%		83.5%	84.0%	0.5 pts	–
DLeticia Gutierrez	16.9%		17.5%	16.0%	1.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Alex Mealer

Republican

Alex Mealer, a Republican METRO board member and the 2022 nominee for Harris County judge, is the Republican nominee for Texas's redrawn 9th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.

Full candidate profile →

Leticia Gutierrez

Democratic

Leticia Gutierrez, a Democrat and environmental justice advocate, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's redrawn 9th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Alex Mealer, a METRO board member.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi794 contracts

Texas's 9th District margin of victory

Mealer, 1+ pts		79.5%
Mealer, 4+ pts		67.5%
Mealer, 7+ pts		53.5%
Mealer, 10+ pts		39.0%
Mealer, 13+ pts		25.5%
Mealer, 16+ pts		15.5%
Mealer, 19+ pts		7.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi374 contracts

Texas's 9th District margin of victory

Gutierrez, 2+ pts		11.6%
Gutierrez, 5+ pts		5.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.9K traded

TX-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		4.3%
Republican 15-18%		13.7%
Republican 12-15%		21.0%
Republican 9-12%		17.5%
Republican 6-9%		17.5%
Republican 3-6%		16.6%
Republican 0-3%		5.3%
Democrat 0-3%		7.1%
Democrat 3-6%		2.4%
Democrat 6%+		5.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Alex Mealer: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $29.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi30.3K contracts traded