House · 3 November 2026

TX-35 House 2026

59.5% DJohnny Garcia leads TruthIndex™Toss-up

Polymarket: 59.0%
Kalshi: 60.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-35 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Inter-American bank promotes alliances for the recovery of Venezuela

The provided page reports on the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) promoting alliances to support Venezuela’s economic recovery.

rnv.gob.veYesterdayCruz

Today
The midterm elections: What you need to know
Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D) [...] Advertisement

aol.com6h agoGarcia Moody Nixon Poindexter Cruz Sneed
Wednesday, Oct 14
OFAC removes president of the National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez from Its sanctions list
OFAC, a U.S. Treasury office, announced the removal of Jorge Rodríguez, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, from its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) sanctions list.

rnv.gob.veYesterdayCruz
National Assembly receives BCV 2027 budget
The National Assembly received the Central Bank of Venezuela’s (BCV) draft Budget for Revenue and Operating Expenses for the 2027 fiscal year.

rnv.gob.veYesterdayCruz
Third round of dialogue between the Venezuelan government and the 2015 National Assembly was installed this Wednesday
Topic: Third round of political dialogue in Venezuela between the government and the 2015 National Assembly.

rnv.gob.veYesterdayCruz

Johnny Garcia, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DJohnny Garcia	59.5%		59.0%	60.5%	1.5 pts	–
RCarlos De La Cruz	40.1%		40.5%	39.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-35/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-35">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Carlos De La Cruz

Republican

Carlos De La Cruz, a Republican gym owner and brother of U.S. representative Monica De La Cruz, is the Republican nominee for Texas's newly drawn 35th congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

Full candidate profile →

Johnny Garcia

Democratic

Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County sheriff's deputy and Democrat, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's newly drawn 35th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Carlos De La Cruz, a gym owner.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.8K contracts

Texas's 35th District margin of victory

Cruz, 1+ pts		32.5%
Cruz, 4+ pts		19.5%
Cruz, 7+ pts		10.1%
Cruz, 10+ pts		5.1%
Cruz, 13+ pts		6.7% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi1.6K contracts

Texas's 35th District margin of victory

Garcia, 2+ pts		53.5%
Garcia, 5+ pts		38.5%
Garcia, 8+ pts		25.5%
Garcia, 11+ pts		15.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.4K traded

TX-35 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		2.8%
Republican 9-12%		3.6%
Republican 6-9%		7.9%
Republican 3-6%		17.5%
Republican 0-3%		21.9%
Democrat 0-3%		18.1%
Democrat 3-6%		16.5%
Democrat 6-9%		14.5%
Democrat 9-12%		2.7%
Democrat 12%+		2.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$53.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Johnny Garcia: Counted · bid 58.0% / ask 60.0% · $71.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi214.8K contracts traded