US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-15 House.
While Johnson and others have been focusing on three races in the Rio Grande Valley, one race polling companies have largely ignored is CD 23, the largest border district in Texas.
Combustible Republican Senate primary in Texas heading into overtime
Pulido“I’m not exaggerating, South Texas will literally decide the majority in the Congress,” he said.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBobby Pulido | 82.6% | 82.5% | 83.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RMonica De La Cruz | 16.9% | 17.5% | 15.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Bobby Pulido, a Democrat and Tejano musician who won two Latin Grammy Awards for Best Tejano Album, is challenging Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz for Texas's 15th congressional district in 2026.
Monica De La Cruz, a Republican who has represented Texas's 15th congressional district since 2023, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano musician.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 15th District margin of victory
| Cruz, 1+ pts | 12.0% | |
| Cruz, 4+ pts | 4.7% | |
| Cruz, 7+ pts | 3.3% | |
| Cruz, 10+ pts | 2.9% | |
| Cruz, 13+ pts | 2.8% |
Texas's 15th District margin of victory
| Pulido, 2+ pts | 78.0% | |
| Pulido, 5+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Pulido, 8+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Pulido, 11+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Pulido, 14+ pts | 10.1% | |
| Pulido, 17+ pts | 4.5% |
TX-15 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 1.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 0.5% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 3.8% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 11.1% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 20.6% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 7.5% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 5.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Bobby Pulido: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 83.0% · $39.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Bobby Pulido: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $5.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bobby Pulido
If the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
