House · 3 November 2026

TX-34 House 2026

84.3% DVicente Gonzalez leads TruthIndex™Likely D

Polymarket: 83.5%
Kalshi: 84.5%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-34 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

Republicans pull ads against Cuellar as TX-28 odds lean Democratic

In TX-28, Republicans canceled about $3 million in ad reservations for the final three weeks, shifting funds to neighboring districts (TX-15 and TX-34).

texaspredictions.comYesterday

Cuellar Flores

Yesterday
Guns, F-bombs, fortune cookies. What do wild campaign ads actually say?
Eric Flores is the Republican candidate challenging incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’s 34th Congressional District (TX-34).

Yahoo NewsYesterdayFlores Brooks Orden
Wednesday, Oct 14
Speaker Johnson: ‘Don’t believe the crazy polls, they’re wrong’ about South Texas
The article discusses Speaker Johnson urging voters not to trust polls about South Texas politics and notes campaigning support for Republican Eric Flores in Texas's newly redrawn CD 34.

yournews.comYesterdayFloresAlso in aol.com, Big Country News

Vicente Gonzalez, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DVicente Gonzalez	84.3%		83.5%	84.5%	1.0 pts	–
REric Flores	15.7%		16.5%	15.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-34/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-34">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Eric Flores

Republican

Eric Flores is the Republican nominee for Texas's 34th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez after winning the Republican primary with 56.7% of the vote.

Full candidate profile →

Vicente Gonzalez

Democratic U.S. Representative for Texas's 34th congressional district (since 2023)

Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat who has represented Texas's 34th congressional district since 2023 after representing the 15th district from 2017 to 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Eric Flores.

Born 1967 · Corpus Christi, Texas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

Texas's 34th District margin of victory

Flores, 2+ pts		10.6%
Flores, 5+ pts		5.4%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi2.0K contracts

Texas's 34th District margin of victory

Gonzalez, 1+ pts		80.0%
Gonzalez, 4+ pts		64.5%
Gonzalez, 7+ pts		52.0%
Gonzalez, 10+ pts		38.5%
Gonzalez, 13+ pts		24.5%
Gonzalez, 16+ pts		15.5%
Gonzalez, 19+ pts		8.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.3K traded

TX-34 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		3.9%
Republican 9-12%		4.1%
Republican 6-9%		5.4%
Republican 3-6%		5.5%
Republican 0-3%		11.0%
Democrat 0-3%		14.0%
Democrat 3-6%		20.8%
Democrat 6-9%		14.5%
Democrat 9-12%		12.3%
Democrat 12%+		17.3%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$11.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Vicente Gonzalez: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $5.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi80.3K contracts traded