nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TX-23 House 2026

70.0% RBrandon Herrera leads TruthIndex™Lean R
Polymarket
69.5%
Kalshi
71.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+7.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-23 House.

  1. Democratic Opponent Blasts Brandon Herrera’s “Water Is Not a Human Right” Stance

    Brandon Herrera's Democratic opponent, Katy Padilla Stout, is criticizing the Texas Republican over past comments agreeing with the position that water is

    MeidasTouch NetworkStout
  2. Today on Texas Standard: Border wall worker camps raise concerns in West Texas

    Republican Brandon Herrera and Democrat Katy Padilla Stout faced off this week in the race for Texas’ sprawling 23rd Congressional District.

    Texas StandardStout
  3. Talarico Posts Record $64M Quarter as Dems Outraise GOP in Key Senate Races

    In Maine’s open 2nd District, Democrat Matt Dunlap raised $1.5 million and had $738,000 on hand.

    The Well NewsHerrera
  4. GOP Candidate Brandon Herrera Said Water Is Not a Human Right

    Texas Republican congressional nominee Brandon Herrera agreed with Nestlé's reported position on water rights during a 2022 podcast appearance, and also agreed that someone who owned a tree capable of curing cancer…

    Yahoo NewsHerrera
  5. Speaker Johnson: 'Don’t believe the crazy polls, they’re wrong' about South Texas | Texas

    While Johnson and others have been focusing on three races in the Rio Grande Valley, one race polling companies have largely ignored is CD 23, the largest border district in Texas.

    The Center SquareHerreraPulido
More coverage 2
  1. MAHA PAC and MAHA Action PAC announce Make Iowa Healthy Again Rally & Commits over $1.9 Million to Elect Zach Lahn and support Six House Candidates in Midterm Push and a Ground Game

    Brandon Herrera (TX-23), health-freedom champion pressing for food-supply transparency and the restoration of informed consent.

    PR NewswireHerreraLunaYarbrough
  2. EXCLUSIVE: Democrat Blasts Republican Opponent Who Mocked People With Down Syndrome

    Herrera was unable to defeat his incumbent Republican opponent and only advanced because Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned during a runoff.

    Yahoo NewsHerrera

Brandon Herrera, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RBrandon Herrera 70.0% 69.5% 71.5% 2.0 pts –
DKaty Padilla Stout 31.4% 31.5% 29.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brandon Herrera

Brandon Herrera

Republican

Brandon Herrera, a Republican YouTuber and firearms manufacturer who ran for Texas's 23rd congressional district in 2024, is his party's nominee for the open 23rd district seat in 2026 against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout.

Born 1995

Katy Padilla Stout

Democratic

Katy Padilla Stout, a Democratic attorney, is her party's nominee for the open seat in Texas's 23rd congressional district in 2026 against Republican Brandon Herrera, a firearms manufacturer and YouTuber.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi18.5K contracts

Texas's 23rd District margin of victory

Herrera, 1+ pts
80.0%
Herrera, 2+ pts
–
Herrera, 5+ pts
–
Herrera, 8+ pts
36.0%
Herrera, 11+ pts
31.5%
Herrera, 14+ pts
–
Herrera, 17+ pts
10.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi987 contracts

Texas's 23rd District margin of victory

Stout, 1+ pts
–
Stout, 4+ pts
10.7%
Stout, 7+ pts
4.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.9K traded

TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+
12.3%
Republican 9-12%
12.4%
Republican 6-9%
8.4%
Republican 3-6%
16.0%
Republican 0-3%
19.5%
Democrat 0-3%
19.0%
Democrat 3-6%
11.2%
Democrat 6-9%
2.7%
Democrat 9-12%
0.1%
Democrat 12%+
0.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$94.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brandon Herrera: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $32.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi265.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Brandon Herrera: Counted · bid 71.0% / ask 72.0% · $11.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Brandon Herrera

If the House member sworn in for TX-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Texas

  1. Texas SenateD62%
  2. Texas GovernorR77%
  3. TX-01 HouseR97%
  4. TX-02 HouseR93%
  5. TX-03 HouseR95%
  6. TX-04 HouseR96%
  7. TX-05 HouseR98%
  8. TX-06 HouseR95%