Top story
In purple Wisconsin, race for governor is yet another nail-biter
ROCK SPRINGS, Wis. (AP): Democrats got the matchup they wanted for governor in Wisconsin.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026
Wisconsin Governor 2026
- Polymarket
- 80.5%
- Kalshi
- 80.5%
- Spread
- 0.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Wisconsin Governor.
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Inside Wisconsin Politics: What are the track records of Tom Tiffany and David Crowley?
This Inside Wisconsin Politics episode from Wisconsin Public Radio analyzes the political track records of Wisconsin figures Tom Tiffany and David Crowley, concentrating on their political histories and positions.
wpr.org
Tiffany -
What are the track records of Tom Tiffany and David Crowley?
PBS Passport logo with blue star compass icon between “PBS” and “Passport” in white text.
pbswisconsin.org
Crowley -
Top donors to David Crowley, Dem candidate for Wisconsin governor
Wisconsin gubernatorial candidates David Crowley and Tom Tiffany report millions in campaign donations as party funding and wealthy donors shape the 2026
racinecountyeye.comCrowley -
Here's a voter guide to the Wisconsin governor candidates in election
Tom Tiffany is a Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate from the Northwoods (likely northern. He would be one of the oldest governors if elected at 68).
Milwaukee Journal-SentinalTiffany -
Tom Tiffany says he will audit Wisconsin DNR before weighing any fee increases
Tom Tiffany, a Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, says he would audit state agencies: starting with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR): before approving any fee or tax increases for fish and…
wpr.orgTiffany
More coverage 10
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Wisconsin's Republican candidate for governor keeps his distance from Trump in nail-biter campaign
The Washington Post reports that Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany is keeping distance from Donald Trump in a tight race against Democrat David Crowley.
Washington PostTiffany -
New spots launch in guv’s race as ad spending tops $82 million
GOP Governor’s Association, Democratic Governor’s Association, and allied groups have launched new ads as total ad reservations exceed $82.5 million ( Aug 11 – Nov 3 election window).
wispolitics.comTiffany -
David Crowley responds to Community Advocates controversy, lays out priorities for Wisconsin Governor
David Crowley, the Democratic candidate for Wisconsin governor, addresses the Community Advocates controversy and outlines his priorities as Election Day approaches.
wtmj.comCrowley -
Democrats are defending five governorships in states Trump won in 2024, Republicans are defending two in states Harris won
Alaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
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Tom Tiffany outlines tax cuts, budget priorities in Wisconsin governor's race
Return Wisconsin’s estimated $3 billion budget surplus to taxpayers.
wtmj.comTiffany -
Tom Tiffany plane crash caused by pilot error, report finds
A preliminary National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) report concludes that pilot error caused the September plane crash involving Wisconsin Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, as he returned from a campaign event.
wpr.orgTiffany -
Wisconsin Governor candidates speak in Madison about future plans and visions
Tom Tiffany, a Wisconsin Governor candidate, spoke in Madison about his future plans and vision for the state.
wsaw.comTiffany -
Tiffany wins Wisconsin primary; Democrat opponent remains uncertain | National
Tom Tiffany won the Wisconsin GOP gubernatorial primary, with early results showing overwhelming support (nearly 96% of early votes) over Andy Manske. The general election opponent remains uncertain.
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County government veterans eye statewide, higher office
David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive since 2020, is a Democratic candidate in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, challenging Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers.
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Crowley Offers No Plan When Asked How He’ll Fund Universal Pre-K, BadgerCare Expansion, and School Spending
David Crowley, Milwaukee County Executive and Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin, did not provide a funding plan for his key proposals (universal pre-K, expanded housing assistance, higher public school…
heartlandpost.comCrowley
No story this week names this candidate.
David Crowley, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDavid Crowley | 80.5% | 80.5% | 80.5% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RTom Tiffany | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 0.0 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
David Crowley
Democratic Milwaukee County Executive (since 2020)
David Crowley, Milwaukee County executive since 2020, won the 2026 Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin and faces Republican Tom Tiffany in November.
Tom Tiffany
Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (since 2020)
Tom Tiffany, a Republican U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district since 2020, is his party's nominee for governor of Wisconsin in 2026 against Democrat David Crowley.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi23.6K contracts
Wisconsin Governor margin of victory
| Tiffany, 2+ pts | 14.5% | |
| Tiffany, 5+ pts | 6.6% |
Kalshi47.6K contracts
Wisconsin Governor margin of victory
| Crowley, 1+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Crowley, 4+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Crowley, 5+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Crowley, 6+ pts | 39.0% | |
| Crowley, 7+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Crowley, 10+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Crowley, 13+ pts | 7.3% | |
| Crowley, 16+ pts | 2.6% | |
| Crowley, 19+ pts | 2.0% |
Polymarket$22.1K traded
Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Crowley 12%+ | 7.0% | |
| Crowley 9-12% | 12.5% | |
| Crowley 6-9% | 18.5% | |
| Crowley 3-6% | 21.0% | |
| Crowley 0-3% | 14.5% | |
| Tiffany 0-3% | 12.5% | |
| Tiffany 3-6% | 9.6% | |
| Tiffany 6-9% | 0.1% implied | |
| Tiffany 9-12% | 0.2% implied | |
| Tiffany 12%+ | 0.1% implied |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$719.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
David Crowley: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $112.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi1.4M contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
David Crowley: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $58.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: David Crowley
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Wisconsin pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Wisconsin
- WI-01 HouseR62%
- WI-02 HouseD98%
- WI-03 HouseD74%
- WI-04 HouseD97%
- WI-05 HouseR97%
- WI-06 HouseR93%
- WI-07 HouseR95%
- WI-08 HouseR89%