House · 3 November 2026

WI-08 House 2026

88.7% RTony Wied leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 90.0%
Kalshi: 88.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Tony Wied, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTony Wied	88.7%		90.0%	88.5%	1.5 pts	–
DRick Crosson	10.5%		10.5%	10.5%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-08/embed.html" title="WI-08 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wi-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wi-08"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-08/card-landscape.png" alt="WI-08 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Rick Crosson

Democratic

Rick Crosson, a Democrat and former Green Bay school board member, is his party's 2026 nominee for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district, challenging Republican incumbent Tony Wied.

Full candidate profile →

Tony Wied

Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (since 2024)

Tony Wied, a Republican who has represented Wisconsin's 8th congressional district since winning a 2024 special election, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Rick Crosson, a former Green Bay school board member.

Born 1976 · Lincoln

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.6K contracts

Wisconsin's 8th District margin of victory

Wied, 3+ pts		75.0%
Wied, 6+ pts		63.0%
Wied, 9+ pts		47.5%
Wied, 12+ pts		34.5%
Wied, 15+ pts		22.5%
Wied, 18+ pts		13.6%
Wied, 21+ pts		6.1%
Wied, 24+ pts		7.9% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$21.0K traded

WI-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+		4.0%
Republican 18-21%		7.6%
Republican 15-18%		9.8%
Republican 12-15%		18.3%
Republican 9-12%		20.7%
Republican 6-9%		17.0%
Republican 3-6%		14.0%
Republican 0-3%		11.0%
Democrat 0-3%		0.3%
Democrat 3%+		2.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tony Wied: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 91.0% · $5.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi22.8K contracts traded