nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

WI-06 House 2026

92.6% RGlenn Grothman leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
92.5%
Kalshi
92.7%
Spread
0.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WI-06 House.

  1. H-1B Visa Salary Threshold Could Hit $140,000 Under New Bill

    "For decades, companies have been able to sidestep hiring American workers because of a salary threshold that hasn't budged since 1998. That's not modernization, that's a loophole.

    NewsweekGrothmanCrane
  2. Republican Lawmaker Introduces Bill To More Than Double H-1B Salary Threshold

    The bill, H.R. 10799, was introduced on October 13 by Republican Representative Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin and referred to the House Judiciary Committee.

    indicanews.comGrothman
  3. Microsoft’s Brad Smith pushes back on Vice President JD Vance’s visa fraud accusations

    Microsoft President Brad Smith pushed back against Vice President JD Vance’s fraud accusations over the company’s use of foreign workers.

    GeekWireSmith
  4. Microsoft Brad Smith Hits Back At JD Vance Claims On H-1B Abuse, Warns Green Card Restrictions Threaten US AI Lead

    Microsoft vice chair and president Brad Smith pushed back against JD Vance’s claims that Microsoft abuses the H-1B visa program, calling those allegations “completely off base.”

    The Indian ExpressSmith
  5. Microsoft president warns green-card curbs could hurt US tech, Politico reports

    Brad Smith warns that curbing green-card access for skilled foreign workers could harm US tech competitiveness and push talent overseas.

    Channel News AsiaSmithAlso in money.usnews.com
More coverage 1
  1. Microsoft’s president warns White House against skilled immigration crackdown

    Brad Smith (Microsoft president) warns against a U.S. crackdown on skilled immigration. In an exclusive POLITICO interview, he argues that blocking green cards for highly skilled foreign workers could hurt the U.S.

    PoliticoSmith

Glenn Grothman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RGlenn Grothman 92.6% 92.5% 92.7% 0.2 pts –
DBrad Smith 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brad Smith

Democratic

Brad Smith, a Democrat and businessman, is his party's nominee for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Glenn Grothman after narrowly winning the Democratic primary.

Glenn Grothman

Glenn Grothman

Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (since 2015)

Glenn Grothman, a Republican who has represented Wisconsin's 6th congressional district since 2015, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Brad Smith, a businessman who narrowly won his party's primary.

Born 1955 · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.6K contracts

Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory

Grothman, 2+ pts
90.4%
Grothman, 5+ pts
82.0%
Grothman, 8+ pts
69.0%
Grothman, 11+ pts
55.0%
Grothman, 14+ pts
40.0%
Grothman, 17+ pts
27.0%
Grothman, 20+ pts
16.0%
Grothman, 23+ pts
7.6%
Grothman, 26+ pts
4.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.7K traded

WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
3.0%
Republican 0-5%
–
Republican 5-10%
24.5%
Republican 10-15%
23.5%
Republican 15-20%
15.3%
Republican 20-25%
–
Republican 25-30%
–
Republican 30%+
3.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Glenn Grothman: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 93.0% · $4.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi44.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Glenn Grothman: Counted · bid 91.9% / ask 93.4% · $2.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Glenn Grothman

If the House member sworn in for WI-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Wisconsin

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  7. WI-07 HouseR95%
  8. WI-08 HouseR89%