US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for WI-04 House.
Gwen Moore (D-WI-04) recently appeared on WISN’s UpFront (Jan. 20, 2025) where she stated it is “very hard to respect Donald Trump.” The interview is part of a Wisconsin-focused program produced with WisPolitics/State…
MooreGwen Moore (WI-04) endorses Jill Underly for reelection as Wisconsin state superintendent.
MooreThe article highlights Wisconsin CWA political activists engaging in door-to-door outreach ahead of the midterms to support pro-union candidates, including Gwen Moore (WI-4).
The article notes that Wisconsin Democrat Gwen Moore, representing WI-04, helped advance a healthcare-focused bill by introducing a companion measure in June. The bill has numerous original cosponsors, including Reps.
MooreNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGwen Moore | 97.2% | 96.4% | 99.3% | 2.8 pts | – | |
| RTim Rogers | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.7 pts | – |
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Gwen Moore, a Democrat who has represented Wisconsin's 4th congressional district since 2005, faces Republican Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate, in the 2026 general election after winning her party's primary.
Tim Rogers, a Republican perennial candidate, is the Republican nominee for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Gwen Moore after winning the primary with 80.76% of the vote.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Wisconsin's 4th District margin of victory
| Moore, 43+ pts | 94.7% implied | |
| Moore, 46+ pts | 96.0% | |
| Moore, 49+ pts | 94.3% | |
| Moore, 52+ pts | 86.1% | |
| Moore, 55+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Moore, 58+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Moore, 61+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Moore, 64+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Moore, 67+ pts | 5.3% |
WI-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.2% | |
| Democrat 0-30% | 2.0% | |
| Democrat 30-40% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 26.1% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 27.0% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 19.3% | |
| Democrat 70%+ | 6.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Gwen Moore: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.5% · $1.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Gwen Moore: Counted · bid 98.7% / ask 99.8% · $504 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Gwen Moore
If the House member sworn in for WI-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
