House · 3 November 2026

WI-05 House 2026

97.1% RScott Fitzgerald leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 97.2%
Kalshi: 96.6%
Spread: 0.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WI-05 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Patriots opponent preview: Are the Jets quietly growing into a contender?

Andrew Beck is listed as the Jets’ fullback (number 47) on the active roster as of Oct. 15.

nextstamina.comYesterdayBeck

Yesterday
Jets' Kenyon Sadiq: Limited again Thursday
Andrew Beck is listed as one of the Jets’ healthy tight end options, alongside Mason Taylor, Jeremy Ruckert, and Jelani Woods.

cbssports.com21h agoBeck
Wednesday, Oct 14
Patriots vs. Jets preview for NFL Week 6
The article is a Patriots vs. Jets Week 6 preview from Pats Pulpit. It discusses Jets quarterback Geno Smith and the team's QB situation, noting Cade Klubnik as a backup option behind Smith.

patspulpit.comYesterdayBeck
Kenyon Sadiq Injury: Limited again Thursday
Kenyon Sadiq remains in NFL concussion protocol after Sunday's win over the Browns and must practice fully to clear in time for Sunday vs. the Patriots; he has one Friday chance to clear.

rotowire.comYesterdayBeck
Meet the candidates: Democratic challengers discuss healthcare, housing & education | Local News
Andrew Beck, a West Bend Democrat, is challenging incumbent Scott Fitzgerald for Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District (WI-05) in his first run for office.

wdtimes.comYesterdayBeck

Scott Fitzgerald, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RScott Fitzgerald	97.1%		97.2%	96.6%	0.6 pts	–
DAndrew Beck	1.7%		1.9%	1.4%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Andrew Beck

Democratic

Andrew Beck, a Democrat, is the Democratic nominee for Wisconsin's 5th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Scott Fitzgerald after winning the Democratic primary with 99.72% of the vote.

Full candidate profile →

Scott Fitzgerald

Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (since 2021)

Scott Fitzgerald, a Republican who has represented Wisconsin's 5th congressional district since 2021 and previously led Republicans in the Wisconsin State Senate, faces Democrat Andrew Beck in the 2026 general election.

Born 1963 · Chicago

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi61 contracts

Wisconsin's 5th District margin of victory

Fitzgerald, 9+ pts		91.2%
Fitzgerald, 12+ pts		83.0%
Fitzgerald, 15+ pts		72.5%
Fitzgerald, 18+ pts		58.5%
Fitzgerald, 21+ pts		43.5%
Fitzgerald, 24+ pts		28.5%
Fitzgerald, 27+ pts		17.5%
Fitzgerald, 30+ pts		8.7%
Fitzgerald, 33+ pts		4.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.6K traded

WI-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		5.3%
Republican 0-5%		1.1%
Republican 5-10%		6.3%
Republican 10-15%		21.5%
Republican 15-20%		30.1%
Republican 20-25%		26.0%
Republican 25-30%		17.0%
Republican 30-35%		3.8%
Republican 35%+		0.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$108.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Scott Fitzgerald: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.1% · $9.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi10.1K contracts traded