House · 3 November 2026

WI-02 House 2026

98.1% DMark Pocan leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 98.3%
Kalshi: 98.0%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mark Pocan, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMark Pocan	98.1%		98.3%	98.0%	0.2 pts	–
RRepublican Party	1.2%		1.4%	0.8%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mark Pocan

Democratic U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (since 2013)

Mark Pocan, a Democrat who has represented Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district since 2013 and is chair emeritus of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is seeking reelection in 2026 after winning the Democratic primary.

Born 1964 · Kenosha, Wisconsin

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.9K contracts

Wisconsin's 2nd District margin of victory

Pocan, 32+ pts		95.5% implied
Pocan, 35+ pts		97.6%
Pocan, 38+ pts		97.0%
Pocan, 41+ pts		95.5% implied
Pocan, 44+ pts		95.5% implied
Pocan, 47+ pts		95.5% implied
Pocan, 50+ pts		95.5% implied
Pocan, 53+ pts		95.4% implied
Pocan, 56+ pts		95.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$103.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Pocan: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.3% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Pocan: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 99.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Mark Pocan

If the House member sworn in for WI-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi