US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for WI-07 House.
Michael Alfonso, the 26-year-old Republican nominee for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, positions affordable living as his top priority if elected.
ClarkArticle examines Democrat Fred Clark’s bid to flip Wisconsin’s deeply Republican 7th Congressional District (WI-07) in 2026 against Trump-aligned Republican Michael Alfonso.
ClarkThe Merrill Foto News article announces a virtual town hall for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, featuring candidates Fred Clark and Michael Alfonso.
ClarkThe Wisconsin 7th Congressional District race features Republican Michael Alfonso vs. Democrat Fred Clark. The district is Wisconsin’s largest, covering central and northern areas, and has been solidly Republican.
ClarkNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMichael Alfonso | 95.1% | 94.5% | 95.5% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| DFred Clark | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Fred Clark, a Democratic former Wisconsin state representative and conservationist, is his party's nominee for Wisconsin's open 7th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican media producer Michael Alfonso.
Michael Alfonso, a Republican media producer and son-in-law of Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, is his party's nominee for Wisconsin's open 7th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Fred Clark.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Wisconsin's 7th District margin of victory
| Alfonso, 2+ pts | 90.1% | |
| Alfonso, 5+ pts | 81.0% | |
| Alfonso, 8+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Alfonso, 11+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Alfonso, 14+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Alfonso, 17+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Alfonso, 20+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Alfonso, 23+ pts | 7.6% | |
| Alfonso, 26+ pts | 7.8% implied | |
| Alfonso, 29+ pts | 4.5% |
WI-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.6% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.3% | |
| Republican 5-10% | – | |
| Republican 10-15% | 24.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 7.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.0% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 6.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Michael Alfonso: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Michael Alfonso: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 96.8% · $1.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Michael Alfonso
If the House member sworn in for WI-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
