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Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races
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Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
WI-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 74.0%
- Kalshi
- 74.5%
- Spread
- 0.5 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for WI-03 House.
-
Van Orden rides with Trump in campaign for third term
Van Orden positions himself with Trump, appearing at events with Trump and several Trump administration figures, while Trump’s Wisconsin approval has recently trended low.
Wisconsin Examiner
Orden -
Guns, F-bombs, fortune cookies. What do wild campaign ads actually say?
Eric Flores is the Republican candidate challenging incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’s 34th Congressional District (TX-34).
-
Rebecca Cooke says she can campaign ‘on my own’
In Wisconsin’s 3rd district (WI-03), Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who is challenging Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden, says she plans to campaign independently and has not coordinated with Harris’ team or attended…
WorcesterOrden -
Eau Claire Chamber, WEAU partnering to broadcast forum with 3rd congressional candidates
Derrick Van Orden (WI-3) is featured in a jointly broadcast candidate forum with Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke.
WEAU 13 NewsOrden
No story this week names this candidate.
Rebecca Cooke, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRebecca Cooke | 74.5% | 74.0% | 74.5% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RDerrick Van Orden | 25.0% | 25.5% | 25.0% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Derrick Van Orden
Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (since 2023)
Derrick Van Orden, a Republican and retired U.S. Navy SEAL who has represented Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district since 2023, faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke again in 2026 after defeating her in 2024.
Rebecca Cooke
Democratic
Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat, nonprofit founder and former political consultant from Eau Claire, faces Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district in 2026, a rematch of their 2024 race.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi747 contracts
Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory
| Orden, 1+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Orden, 2+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Orden, 5+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Orden, 8+ pts | 10.4% |
Kalshi654 contracts
Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory
| Cooke, 1+ pts | 69.0% | |
| Cooke, 4+ pts | 55.0% | |
| Cooke, 7+ pts | 39.0% | |
| Cooke, 10+ pts | 26.0% | |
| Cooke, 13+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Cooke, 16+ pts | 6.9% |
Polymarket$16.1K traded
WI-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 6.9% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 4.8% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 5.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 19.0% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 7.9% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 7.2% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$7.8K traded
Prices which party wins.
Rebecca Cooke: Counted · bid 73.0% / ask 75.0% · $4.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi140.0K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Rebecca Cooke: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $59.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Rebecca Cooke
If the House member sworn in for WI-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin GovernorD81%
- WI-01 HouseR62%
- WI-02 HouseD98%
- WI-04 HouseD97%
- WI-05 HouseR97%
- WI-06 HouseR93%
- WI-07 HouseR95%
- WI-08 HouseR89%