US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for AL-03 House.
Lee McInnis, Democratic nominee for Alabama’s 3rd U.S. House District, spoke at Opelika town hall alongside lieutenant gubernatorial candidate Ensler and state representatives.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMike Rogers | 97.9% | 97.6% | 98.6% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DLee McInnis | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1 pts | – |
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Lee McInnis, a retired Defense Intelligence Agency employee, is the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 3rd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in the November general election.
Mike Rogers, a Republican who has represented Alabama's 3rd congressional district since 2003 and chairs the House Armed Services Committee, faces Democrat Lee McInnis, a retired Defense Intelligence Agency employee, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
| Rogers, 27+ pts | 93.5% | |
| Rogers, 30+ pts | 86.0% implied | |
| Rogers, 33+ pts | 76.0% implied | |
| Rogers, 36+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Rogers, 39+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Rogers, 42+ pts | 33.5% | |
| Rogers, 45+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Rogers, 48+ pts | 8.6% | |
| Rogers, 51+ pts | 3.8% |
AL-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-15% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 15-25% | 3.9% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 3.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 13.9% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 19.0% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 35.5% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 55%+ | 4.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Mike Rogers: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 98.7% · $1.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mike Rogers: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.7% · $612 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Rogers
If the House member sworn in for AL-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
